Galbraith/Banks

DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com
Tue Jun 29 10:08:52 PDT 1999


As someone for whom "banks are my life", I'd say that JKG is a pretty poor banks guy. For one thing, his analysis of the 1994 shakeout is ass-backward. The short-rate rises in 1994 marked the *end* of the period in which the main objective of Fed policy was to boost bank profits (by engineering a steep yield curve), which was done in order to drag Citibank out of economic insolvency without actually going to Congress for the cash. Banks borrow at the short rate and lend at the long rate. Furthermore, this bit:

What was involved, instead, was a complicated manuever to restart bank business lending on terms that were sufficiently lucrative for the banking industry to accept.

sits uneasily with the rest of his analysis. You're only able to take advantage of the 1994 interest rate environment if you've got a lot of floating-rate lending going on -- ie loans to "the little guy" (typically overdrafts and small business loans). If you were involved in the "high-risk, high return" end, which at that time meant Salomon Brothers and mortgage bond trading, you got your clock cleaned.

And the bit Doug identified as weird is weird beyond belief:

It does not like the grubby business of small-scale, low-margin, retail mortgages to lower-income people. Much better the flashy hedge fund, the Internet start-up,

the real estate investment trust!

Maybe in 1994, but certainly not for the last five years. People *hate* investment banking business -- high risk, poor return, commodity industry and the employees take all the returns anyway (long may this bit continue). "Grubby business" is what made Lloyds TSB and HSBC the market capitalisation gians that they are today. Citibank has almost entirely got out of this field to concentrate on grubby business. Morgan Stanley paid a fancy price to merge with a grubby credit card business (Discover) in order to get some sort of stability in earnings. The idea that Internet start-ups are being fuelled by bank credit is way off. And hedge funds borrow through repo anyway.

Whoever got the idea that retail business with low-income people was low-margin, anyway? I'm happy to forward my credit card details to JKG if it'll help the cause of knowledge

dd

By the way, I thought that the Feds were wholly, not partly, owned by the banks?

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