stock reserves

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Mar 12 09:12:32 PST 1999


Steve Perry wrote:


>Could you explain what you mean by "market top"? Thanks.

The high point of a bull market, just before things fall apart. They can take a long time to build, though usually not 14 years. The ideal type would be: market makes a high, falls back, recovers (with fewer stocks participating in the recovery, though there can be intense speculation focused on a few issues), falls back again, recovers again (with even fewer stocks participating), etc. Professors of finance laugh at these descriptions, arguing that markets don't follow such predictable patterns, but they're widely accepted in the markets. What's been happening in the U.S. stock market over the last 12-18 months - the net mania combined with narrowing participation (i.e., fewer stocks moving up strongly to new individual highs even as the averages push higher, driven by advances in relatively few stocks) - has the markings of a classic major top, like the one of the late 1920s and the late 1960s/early 1970s. Time will tell of course.

Doug



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