stock reserves

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Mar 12 12:38:41 PST 1999


Paul Henry Rosenberg wrote:


>This should be fairly straight-forward to quantify. The number of
>stocks moving up vs. down, the number of stocks moving up more than the
>market average. The average size of stocks in both those categories,
>that kind of thing.

There aren't enough instances to do it rigorously. I'm talking about significant stock market tops, like the late 1920s and late 1960s/early 1970s, the kind with political and social consequences/associations.

Speaking of statistical confirmation, I just read a paper showing that for most stock markets outside the U.S., it's impossible to prove the long-term return is significantly different from 0. For the U.S. it most certainly is, though.

Doug



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