expansiveness

[Doug Henwood]

With the final 1998 GDP and flow of funds numbers in, I've been playing
with spreadsheets, and found this: the U.S. has consumed 108% of after-tax
income growth since 1991, the highest marginal propensity to consume of any
of the last eight expansions. The growth in consumer credit has equaled 27%
of the growth in consumption, at the high end of the eight, but not a
record.

                     change in nominal

             ---------------------------------

             disposable  personal    consumer   financed     marginal

              personal  consumption   credit    share of    propensity

               income  expenditures outstand'g consumption  to consume
54Q2-57Q3        60.3       50.0      13.96       27.9%        82.9%
58Q2-60Q2        38.6       39.7      10.92       27.5%       102.8%
61Q1-69Q4       322.4      285.4      69.89       24.5%        88.5%
70Q4-73Q4       265.7      214.0      59.32       27.7%        80.5%
75Q1-80Q1       818.2      730.4     152.02       20.8%        89.3%
80Q3-81Q3       254.9      192.5      19.54       10.2%        75.5%
82Q4-90Q3     1,803.9    1,730.5     404.12       23.4%        95.9%
91Q1-98Q4     1,860.2    2,015.0      551.5       27.4%       108.3%

average                                           23.7%        90.5%

1952-98       5,887.6    5,712.4    1308.98       22.9%        97.0%