Dow 10,000

Enrique Diaz-Alvarez enrique at
Tue Mar 16 06:50:58 PST 1999

Doug Henwood wrote:
> The Dow just crossed 10,000, and quickly fell back below. Truly these are
> glorious times.
> Doug

>From Peter Eliades Stockmarket cycle:

We got a few calls from the media today asking us about the

importance of 10,000 on the Dow. We answered by telling them we would tell

them the history of Dow 100, and Dow 1000 and let them be the judge of the

importance of Dow 10,000.

The Dow Industrials first closed over 100 on January 12, 1906 at

100.25 and hit a high close of 103.00 on January 19, 1906. From there, the Dow

declined 47% into 1907. It reached 100 again in 1909, in September,October,

and November of that year with a high close of 100.53, finding great resistance

at the 100 number once again. It then declined 45% into 1914, moved back to

100 again in 1916 with the month of November being completely above 100 all

month long, but there was no close higher than 110.15 on November 21. It then

declined 40%. Again in 1919 it remained just above 100 for a full year, May

1919 to April 1920, the highest close in that period, 119.62. But it then moved

down 47% into 1921. Again, the area around the 100 level provided great

resistance. Finally in late 1924, it closed decisively above 100 and kept going up

into the 1929 high reaching almost 400 on the Dow. It had taken almost 19 years

for a convincing breakthrough the 100 level after first getting above it in 1906.

How about the Dow 1000 level. 1000 was hit intra-day on a theoretical

intra-day basis on January 18, 1966 with a final high on February 9,

1966 just above 1000 at 1001.11, theoretical intra-day. The highest close in that

period was 995.15. The Dow then declined 26% in eight months. It went up

again towards the 1000 level in December 1968, but no move above, not even

intra-day. The highs in December of '68 were 994.65 intra-day and 985.21 on a

closing basis, then down 37% in 17 months. On November 14, 1972, the Dow

saw its first close above the 1000 level, six and one half years after hitting it first

time intra-day. The close was 1003.16, and it continued on for another 7-8

weeks with a high in that period occurring around eight weeks later at 1051.70

on a closing basis and 1067.20 on a theoretical intra-day basis, just above the

1000 level and then came the third largest Dow decline of the century, almost

50% down in December 1974, then up to 1000 once again in 1976, with a high

close of 1,014.79 on September 21, 1976, again failing to decisively break above

the 1000 level. It then declined 25% in March of 1978, then again back to the

1000 level

in 1980 with a reading of 1017 on November 20, 1980, then down again. Back

again over 1000 in April of 1981, just above the 1000 level, then down 25% into

August of 1982. Finally in late 1982, the Dow exceeded the 1000 level for real

and has not looked back since then. It had taken the Dow almost 17 years from

the first intra-day reading above the 1000 level to convincingly move above that


The next number, of course, is Dow 10,000. That number has now been reached

almost 17 years after the 1982 low. It is happening on the worst breadth

divergences at new highs since 1929. You be the judge. Is the 10,000 level

important?....... -- Enrique Diaz-Alvarez Office # (607) 255 5034 Electrical Engineering Home # (607) 272 4808 112 Phillips Hall Fax # (607) 255 4565 Cornell University mailto:enrique at Ithaca, NY 14853

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