ECB and interest rates (J. O'Connor's top ten)

Barbara Laurence cns at cats.ucsc.edu
Fri Mar 19 17:14:20 PST 1999


Top ten reasons why ECB won't cut interest rates: 10. ECB wants to protect Germany and Europe from even the remote possibility of inflation. 9. ECB knows that common currency is one thing, a European state another, hence acts in name of strongest state, Germany, where the CB was happy with the current ECB rate, 3 percent. 8. ECB feels threatened by social democratic/green governments, especially Germany's, chooses to deal with democratic demands to lower rates by ignoring them. 7. ECB understands more clearly than the European CBs that the future belongs to financial markets, and that financial markets at the moment are happy with a 3 percent rate. 6. ECB wants to discipline social democratic governments to get flexibility legislation in place, as in "flexible labor markets." ECB understands the differnece between full employment and job security and opposes both. 5. ECB needs to assert its independence from the U.S., at least coming out of the gate. 4. ECB wants to discipline unions, and as with the social democrats uses slow growth to accomplish this. 3. ECB will not be a party to making Germany another consumer of last resort. Unlike the U.S. trade deficit, which influences the dollar/yen/mark rates very little, a European trade deficit would push the Euro down, down. 2. ECB thinks that German and European unemployment generally will not yield to lower rates and an increase in aggregate demand, anyway. And the number one reason why ECB won't lower interest rates is: ? Jim O'Connor



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