The Suez Canal of Eastern Europe

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

I would like to thank Greg Nowell for his argument pinning the causes of
the current conflict in Yugoslavia to the strategic role of the Danube in
European trade.  This is the first materialist explanation on this lists
that explains why Europeans are int his conflict ("imperialist interests of
the bourgeoisie"? -- sorry but that sounds like religious exhortations).
In fact, the politics of the Danube are behind other (much smaller)
conflicts in the region (e.g. between Hungary and Slovakia) as well as
Western European influence peddling aka environmentalism.

If that interpretation is correct, the current conflict is an example of
Marx's dictum of history happening, as it were, twice - first time as
tragedy the second time as farce.  The nationalisation of the Suez Canal in
1956 by Nasser led to a subsequent military intervention of Britain and
France in Egypt.  If Greg's explanation is true, that situation repeats
itself in Yugoslavia as farce - because what is going on right now is not a
serious war (which would require the committment of serious ground forces)
but terror bombing aiming to achieve mainly a psychological effect.  That
may also explain the complacency of Russia - which clearly may see its
economic interest in the Danube commerce.

Well done, Greg (even though I'd take exception to some of your views on
bourgeois democracy).  

A few follow up questions:

1. What is the current and projected flow of commercial traffic on the Danube?

2. Who are the main current and prospective actors?

3. If the Belgrade regime is, in fact, blocking the Danube commercial
traffic, why are they doing that?  What commercial or political interests
of theirs such behaviour serves?

Cheers,

Wojtek