______
I would like to thank Greg Nowell for his argument pinning the causes of the current conflict in Yugoslavia to the strategic role of the Danube in European trade. This is the first materialist explanation on this lists that explains why Europeans are int his conflict ("imperialist interests of the bourgeoisie"? -- sorry but that sounds like religious exhortations). In fact, the politics of the Danube are behind other (much smaller) conflicts in the region (e.g. between Hungary and Slovakia) as well as Western European influence peddling aka environmentalism.
If that interpretation is correct, the current conflict is an example of Marx's dictum of history happening, as it were, twice - first time as tragedy the second time as farce. The nationalisation of the Suez Canal in 1956 by Nasser led to a subsequent military intervention of Britain and France in Egypt. If Greg's explanation is true, that situation repeats itself in Yugoslavia as farce - because what is going on right now is not a serious war (which would require the committment of serious ground forces) but terror bombing aiming to achieve mainly a psychological effect. That may also explain the complacency of Russia - which clearly may see its economic interest in the Danube commerce.
Well done, Greg (even though I'd take exception to some of your views on bourgeois democracy).
A few follow up questions:
1. What is the current and projected flow of commercial traffic on the Danube?
GN: I don't know. I know it should be important but I haven't seen stats and when I tried to get them last year I failed. In particular I was trying to get stats on the oil trade.
2. Who are the main current and prospective actors?
GN: That would be Germany and Holland (qua core), with everyone tied into Germany via the Danube (qua periphery and semiperiphery). Note: The Danube goes RIGHT THROUGH the heart of Belgrade. But don't forget this ties in to the whole Caucasus prosperity sphere: Black Sea to Danube, Danube to North Sea: major highway for the New World Order. You could put British Petroleum oil drilling gear on a boat and have it unloading in Georgia in (comparatively) no time. The difference is, and I do stress this because I think it is important: No one gives a shit about "democracy" in the Caucasus. There is a genuine commitment to bourgeois democracy in continental Europe. My take on the Yugoslavian dictators of Croatia and Serbia is that they will be tolerated in the Salazar-Franco model (even encouraged to the extent they pay back loans) but that the game plan as such is to keep them at arm's length until they go bourgeois democratic. The difference between Tudjman and Milosovic is that T stops more or less when told and respects things like debt to Germany. M is more of a wild card and doesn't stop when told.
3. If the Belgrade regime is, in fact, blocking the Danube commercial traffic, why are they doing that? What commercial or political interests of theirs such behaviour serves?
GN: I know it's been blocked due to the blockade which was lifted after Dayton and now it's shut down again. I don't have dates. I would suggest that part of the reason may be a pissing match with Croatia which also borders the Danube. Basically as long as these guys are doing the war gig the E Europe Danube development plan is on hold.
Cheers,
Wojtek
-- Gregory P. Nowell Associate Professor Department of Political Science, Milne 100 State University of New York 135 Western Ave. Albany, New York 12222
Fax 518-442-5298