If by "gradual" one means "slow," then no. Turkmenistan has had almost no changes. Gradual like solid molasses.
I think that will be all for today from me, folks! Barkley Rosser -----Original Message----- From: Seth Ackerman <SAckerman at FAIR.org> To: 'lbo-talk at lists.panix.com' <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Date: Monday, May 03, 1999 5:11 PM Subject: RE: Poland
>Would you say Hungary has been the most gradual of the ex-socialist
>countries?
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. [SMTP:rosserjb at jmu.edu]
>> Sent: Monday, May 03, 1999 4:45 PM
>> To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com
>> Subject: Re: Poland
>>
>> Seth,
>> Hungary never had "shock therapy." It has
>> long been viewed as the classic case of "gradualism."
>> It is also a case of not having stalled out or getting
>> side tracked by corruption or wars or all sorts of other
>> nonsense, despite the temptation of revanchist nationalism
>> due to all the ethnic Hungarians located outside its borders.
>> Gradual, but reasonably steady and well thought out.
>> Poland had macroeconomic "shock therapy" and it
>> was successful at reducing the inflation rate. It has not been
>> successful at reducing unemployment very much. As I noted,
>> for all its success and the cheers of the IMF, etc. (which, however
>> still fusses at Poland for not having privatized more), Poland
>> has yet had a government that could get itself reelected. There
>> is still a lot of unhappiness on the ground in all of these countries.
>> For both Poland and Hungary, things were somewhat easier,
>> not only because of their more western pasts and orientation, but
>> also because they had been the most market oriented of the old
>> Soviet bloc countries and thus already had some of the institutional
>> framework and infrastructure in place. Thus, the therapy was not
>> so "shocking" and in Hungary's case was not even what happened.
>> Barkley Rosser
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Seth Ackerman <SAckerman at FAIR.org>
>> To: 'lbo-talk at lists.panix.com' <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com>
>> Date: Monday, May 03, 1999 4:36 PM
>> Subject: RE: Poland
>>
>>
>> >So does the relative success of Poland and Hungary prove that shock
>> >therapy in some form can work? That the failure of Russia stemmed
>> form
>> >purely Russian circumstances, not from the policies themselves?
>> >
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. [SMTP:rosserjb at jmu.edu]
>> >> Sent: Monday, May 03, 1999 3:50 PM
>> >> To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com
>> >> Subject: Re: Poland
>> >>
>> >> Doug,
>> >> Poland's debt reduction certainly helped, but was
>> >> not the end all and be all. Hungary did not have one
>> >> and has been doing nearly as well as Poland. Of course
>> >> they had very different strategies vis a vis privatization
>> >> which were related to this issue. Hungary has emphasized
>> >> selling off its assets to foreign multinationals as its way of
>> >> privatizing. This is also more gradual than the instant
>> >> privatization voucher schemes pushed by our Bates Medal
>> >> Winner, Shleifer, that have been such miserable failures in
>> >> the CR and Russia. But one at least gets a fresh injection
>> >> of finance, new tech, access to foreign markets, and
>> >> managerial restructuring out of it.
>> >> OTOH, Poland has been much more leary of opening
>> >> to foreign direct investment, with much of that related to a
>> >> residual fear of German domination. (Much of the fdi in
>> >> Hungary has come from the much less scary Austria,
>> >> associated nostalgically with the Habsburgs).
>> >> The issue is that the debt reduction in Poland made
>> >> potential foreign investors more leary of going into Poland.
>> >> But that was just fine with the Poles. The Hungarians wanted
>> >> fdi and thus have put up with continuing to make high
>> >> interest payments on their left over debts from their days
>> >> of Kadaresque "goulash communism" and soft budget
>> >> constraint market socialism.
>> >> BTW, the CR and Slovakia did not have this legacy of
>> >> foreign debts or of hyperinflation as the starting point of their
>> >> transitions was that of a very rigid command socialism.
>> >> Barkley Rosser
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
>> >> To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com>
>> >> Date: Monday, May 03, 1999 2:17 PM
>> >> Subject: Poland
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> >J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >>Curiously, Poland, which you pose as a highly reformed
>> >> >>economy (and it is) has been much slower to privatize.
>> >> >
>> >> >Poland also got a 50% debt cancellation, no? How important was
>> that?
>> >> >
>> >> >Speaking of Poland, Wojtek, I'd like to hear your opinion of the
>> >> early
>> >> >1980s Solidarnosc.
>> >> >
>> >> >Doug
>> >> >
>> >
>