Russia's ties with West likely to worsen - IISS By David Ljunggren
LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Russia's relations with the West are sure to worsen in the coming year as nationalists seek to make political capital from the country's economic crisis, a leading London-based think-tank said on Tuesday.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said Russia had to balance its anger at NATO air strikes against old ally Serbia with its desire for more International Monetary Fund (IMF) aid to help stabilise its crumbling economy.
``This is a sure formula for a recrudescence of nationalist fervour,'' the think-tank said in its Strategic Survey for 1998/99.
``With an increase in nationalist feeling, Russia's relations with the West are sure to decay; that will ensure that, for Russia, the coming year is grimmer than the one just past.''
This is especially true if Western governments take a closer look at the spiralling corruption inside Russia and began questioning the worth of large-scale aid, the survey said.
``The mismanagement, profligacy and corruption demonstrated by the Russian elite have exceeded anything seen in southeast Asia. Unlike even Suharto's Indonesia, the country has defaulted on its debts, and risks becoming a financial outcast,'' it said.
The good news for the West is that the financial crisis -- which erupted last August after Moscow devalued the rouble by 30 percent -- has reduced Russia as security threat, according to the survey.
It said that, despite the likely deterioration in ties, the poor state of Russia's armed forces means Moscow is unlikely to pose much of a security threat to mainland Europe.
``Financial constraints have clearly impeded the modernisation of Russia's military capabilities,'' it said, adding that with one exception Moscow has not deployed a new major weapons system for several years.
``It is hard to see a Russia that cannot impose its will on Chechnya as a major threat to countries that lie between its borders and NATO states.
``The result is a real peace dividend for Europeans and indeed for nearly all of Russia's neighbours.''
The IISS said the West could also take comfort from the fact that fears of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation seemed to have been exaggerated.
``Having allowed Russia to fail, it has been a pleasant surprise, so far, that there has been no sudden outflow of 'loose nukes' and 'loose scientists','' it said.
``The biggest danger, however, is not strategic but political -- that economic hardship fosters the popularity of xenophobic nationalist politicians, prone to foreign policy obstructionism. But even this nightmare scenario seems remote.''
The IISS said President Boris Yeltsin's efforts to create a stable post-Soviet economy had clearly failed and unless Moscow did more to resolve the economic crisis, Russia could slowly start falling apart.
``There are fears that the president's failure to exercise his authority to implement urgently needed economic policies will further weaken Russia, exacerbating the crisis and leading to the federal government losing control throughout Russia's 89 federal entities,'' it said.