When I want to check up on US markets I go here (Yahoo Finance)
Where the listed price is for the 30 year and where you can get charts showing 5 day hourly variations, &c. (They also do stox).
When you say "long bond" to me & I think most it means the 30 year. It is true that for some mysterious reason the 29 year and other bonds often trade at a premium relative to the *most recenlty issued 30 year.* This is in spite of nearly identical gains (losses) on 30 and 29 year bonds in up (down) markets.
You were quoting some aggegate fed index of long rates. Notice how the 20 year trades at a premium relative to the 30 year. It might well be that a weighted index of issue would have a vastly larger inventory of the 20 years (30 years that are ten years old, hence issued during the great days of deficits forever).
Real estate pricing tends to follow the 30 year note, not the aggregate. Don't know why. I don't see any theoretical reason for having the 20 year trade at a premium to the 30 year unless the increased volatility of the longer issue actually makes it more ardently desired. If I were panicking in Indonesia I think I'd be just as happy in a 20 year as a 30 year. But this could be one of those mysteries, like the discounted prices of closed end bond funds. I did read something about the non-30 year 30 year bonds which said that the higher pricers of the bonds with less time to go was something of a mystery.
It is possible that for some categories of major buyers, such as insurance funds and pension funds, there is a desire to "lock in" a certain income stream and that a 30 year locked in income stream would be more desireable than a 20 year locked in income stream. You pay more (lowering the rate) because the 30 year return is worth more to you than the higher 20 year return.
but i'm just making this up. On related mysteries, in England yield on consols (infinite terms) varied at times depending on whether the interest rate of issue was 2 1/2 or 3 1/2, even though the market could in theory adjust prices to the same for each. And it did, but never quite.
ps. has anyone found a website that is A) free and B) lists daily prices of commodity and financial futures. -gn.
-- Gregory P. Nowell Associate Professor Department of Political Science, Milne 100 State University of New York 135 Western Ave. Albany, New York 12222
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