Russian Cohesion Index: -17 (down 9 this week)
Disintegration.............T.....L....0...................Democratic Federalism
(T = this week; L = last week; 0 = 17 March)
*****See the RRR website (<http://www.iews.org/rrrabout.nsf>) for a graphic display of the Russian Cohesion Index since 17 March.*****
----- New violence in the traditionally quiet region of Karachaevo-Cherkesiya marks the further destablization of the North Caucasus. Moscow has long lacked a coherent response to the problems in this region and the promotion of Sergei Stepashin, one of the main advocates of using force in Chechnya in 1994, is unlikely to encourage a happy outcome. (-6)
+++++ Some sectors of the Russian economy are booming, such as the beer industry. More than $1 billion worth of investment is expected during the next several years. Such pockets of success may stimulate broader economic growth. (+2)
----- Belgorod Governor Yevgenii Savchenko has moved forward the region's gubernatorial elections by seven months so that his opponents will not have time to prepare for them. Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiev is thinking of doing the same thing to insure the result he is looking for in the republic's upcoming legislative elections. Continuing this long-standing tradition of changing the rules of the game to suit short-term political needs will only reduce popular trust in Russia's democratic institutions. (-2)
------ The federal authorities are not paying attention to regional concerns over such issues as how to develop the Baikal Amur Railroad and the ownership of the ONAKO oil company in Orenburg. Such actions will only create greater animosity toward the center. (-2)
----- Leningrad defaulted on a syndicated loan on 5 May and some of Russia's wealthiest regions are likely to follow. (-1)
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