Perhaps this really is one of those occasions, as predicted by chaos theory, that a familiar pattern may suddenly change as a result of one apparently chance event. (The mathematicians of chaos theory do not go on to suggest, as I think one should, that this can only happen if the system is such that it could, with only a slight push, take up a completely different pattern.)
I agree there are major implications of this attack. The Chinese Government has sanctioned mass student and other popular demonstrations across China. The Vice President, Hu Jintao has said that law should be observed, and that foreign representative staff will be protected. Nevertheless his broadcast made no mention of NATO's apology and explanation, that this was a mistake.
If domestic politics and international politics can come together at this point and the Communist Party of China can win a new mandate from Chinese youth, within ten years of Tien Anmen, against US hegemonism and neo-liberalism, that will mobilize a major force in world politics for a more multi-centric world, a world that is to serve the interests of local communities as well as the human race as a whole, rather than being a smooth, level playing field for giant transnational companies.
But it is highly ironic that the London edition of this weekend's International Herald Tribune went to press just before the news of the Embassy bombing broke. It carries an article entitled
"China's Softer NATO line"
How much of the ideas behind this briefing will survive and whether China can mobilise national feeling against the US and the west without risking Han chauvinism toward minority nationalities, will have to be seen. Presumably Li Peng's comments are the ones particularly to watch now, if this report is to be believed.
Chris Burford
London
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Sent by John Promfret of the Washington Post from Beijing
"When NATO warplanes began pounding Yugoslavia seven weeks ago, China's state-run media reacted fast and ferociously.
The official press defended President Milosevic's "right" to mercilessly crack down on ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. Yugoslavia, the press said, was an innocent victim and some periodicals portrayed Bill Clinton sporting a Hitler-type mustache.
Now China's tone has changed. Spooked by the specter of similar chaos in Tibet and Zinjiang, and anxious to maintain close ties with the Islamic world, China has softened its criticism of the NATO air strikes and has begun to allow press reports that detail the plight of Albanian refugess.
And the Communist Party has established two study groups to consider policy alternatives in China's restive regions, souces said, in part as a reaction to ethnic turmoil in Kosovo.
Also, circulars have been dispatched to universities instructing professors to be careful when they denounce the NATO operation.
The policy proposals indicate how seriously the Kosovo conflict is conflict is affecting a country halfway around the world.
China's leadership reacted simplistically to NATO's attacks when they began, Chinese sources said. Now, the leadership is realizing some ramifications of its initial, hard-line response. While China to a great extent has parroted Russian's strong opposition to the NATO attacks, Chinese experts say Beijing now realizes it needs to set its own policy.
'When it comes to Yugoslav policy, China is trapped between many competing interests, both within China and from the outside,' said [an unidentified] senior Chinese scholar who advises the leadership of foreign policy. 'The Kosovo crisis has revealed bureaucratic squabbles, contradictions in our foreign policy goals and contradictions in our internal policies. It is a troubling situation.'
The quiet but significant modification of Beijing's reaction to the European crisis is another indication to observers that China, slowly but surely is being pulled into the world order.
'When events in Kosovo can perhaps influence something in Kashgar, you know China is changing,' said a Western diplomat...'
Perhaps the most interesting development, Chinese sources say, is the establishment within the Communist Party of two committees to draft recommendations for policies in Tibet and Xinjiang, two vast regions where restless ethnic groups - Tibetans, Uighurs and Kazakhs - live uncomfortably under Chinese rule.
Reports are due in late June, one source said, emphasizing that, while he did not expect a fundamental policy change for these regions, the process did signal that the Kosovo crisis has had a profound effect on the Chinese leadership.
We see the danger in Yugolsavia's policy,' siad an [unidentified] official with close ties to secruity officials. 'We don't want to repeat Yugoslavia's mistakes.'
China's national security establishment has informed university scholars to tell students that the bombing of Yugolsavia by NATO violates international law.
Universities have also been informed that the Yugoslav amabassador and other Belgrade government representaives should not be allowed to speak on campuses, the sources said.
And the official press has begun printing stories that detail the brutal expulsion of Kosovo's ethnic Albanians.
Some say the shift began when Li Peng, the second most powerful man in the Communist Party, visited several Muslim countries - Turkey, Syria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh - in April.
Later in Thaileand, China Central Television quoted Mr Li as saying for the first time pulicly that China opposed massacres and expulsion of people from their homes.
This view was repeated by Prime Minister Zhu Rongji in the United States.
China had two reasons to modify its support for Yugoslavia. First, China has sought to maintain good relations with the Islamic world, which generally supports the NATO bombardment, while remaining skeptical of the alliance's motives. Second, China cannot affort to use the Yugolsav government's treatment of its Muslim ethnic Albanians as a model for an ethnic policy."