progress in economics

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue May 11 09:00:45 PDT 1999


"Is Sound Just Noise?"

BY: JOSHUA D. COVAL

University of Michigan Business School

Department of Finance and Real Estate

TYLER G. SHUMWAY

University of Michigan Business School

Department of Finance and Real Estate

Document: Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:

http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=160173

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http://eres.bus.umich.edu/docs/workpap/wp98024.pdf

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Paper ID: University of Michigan Business School Working Paper

No. 98024

Date: November 1998

Contact: JOSHUA D. COVAL

Email: Mailto:coval at umich.edu

Postal: University of Michigan Business School

Department of Finance and Real Estate

Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234 USA

Phone: 734-764-2313

Co-Auth: TYLER G. SHUMWAY

Email: Mailto:shumway at umich.edu

Postal: University of Michigan Business School

Department of Finance and Real Estate

Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234 USA

Paper Requests:

Contact Christine Miotto, Univ. of Michigan Business School, 701

Tappen, Rm A2120, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234.

Mailto:christine_miotto_at_umbus-adm3 at ccmail.bus.umich.edu

ABSTRACT:

This Paper analyzes the information content of the ambient noise

level in the Chicago Board of Trade's 30-year Treasury Bond

futures trading pit. Controlling for a variety of other

variables, including lagged price changes, trading volumes, and

news announcements, we find that the sound level conveys

information which is highly economically and statistically

significant. In particular, we find increases in the sound level

precede periods of high price volatility and increased trading

volumes. Increases in the sound level also presage the placement

of block trades and relative increases in customer-driven

trading. Our results add to our understanding of the market

price formation process and offer important implications for the

future of open outcry and floor-based trading mechanisms.

JEL Classification: G13, G14



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