Not so silly

[Adam Souzis]

>>> "J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." <rosserjb at jmu.edu> 05/11/99 01:48PM >>
>     BTW, for those who come up with half-baked probability
>calculations and then declare that this could not have been
>a mistake, I would remind you that the chances of the Three
>Mile Island accident happening were supposedly something
>like one-in-ten billion.

Of course my "calculations" were half-baked -- I was merely illustrating
just how very bad the luck was.  There are VERY few people in the world
that have access the actual facts of what happened -- everyone else, we're
all just idly speculating.  But do you really believe this event wasn't
very bad luck if it was an accident?  So sure, improbable things happen,
but an improbable explanation is an improbable explanation. If you find
every other explanation even more improbable, than go with that one.  But
don't dismiss other explanations as "silly" if the only explanation you got
is improbable.

-- adam