Not so silly

Adam Souzis adam at souzis.com
Wed May 12 19:11:44 PDT 1999


Again you miss my point. Let's assume accidents like this are very probable and so happen quite frequently. Now of the thousands upon thousands of building you might accidently hit, you hit the maybe the second worst possible building that you could accidently hit. Pretty bad luck, no? Are you with me so far? Now reread this thread or think it through yourself. -- adam


>Date: Wed, 12 May 1999 14:03:08 -0400
>From: "J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." <rosserjb at jmu.edu>
>Subject: Re: Not so silly
>
>
>Adam,
> You consider that tale that NIMA made a map
>from satellite imagery that had no addresses on
>it and that then used a 1992 database to supply
>the addresses "improbable," especially in an
>environment of bureaucratic restructing and
>interagency rivalry and competition. This sounds
>very probable to me. All too probable and scary.
>Barkley Rosser
>- -----Original Message-----
>From: Adam Souzis <adam at souzis.com>
>To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com>
>Date: Tuesday, May 11, 1999 5:30 PM
>Subject: Re: Not so silly
>
>
>
>>>>> "J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." <rosserjb at jmu.edu> 05/11/99 01:48PM >>
>>> BTW, for those who come up with half-baked probability
>>>calculations and then declare that this could not have been
>>>a mistake, I would remind you that the chances of the Three
>>>Mile Island accident happening were supposedly something
>>>like one-in-ten billion.
>>
>>Of course my "calculations" were half-baked -- I was merely illustrating
>>just how very bad the luck was. There are VERY few people in the world
>>that have access the actual facts of what happened -- everyone else, we're
>>all just idly speculating. But do you really believe this event wasn't
>>very bad luck if it was an accident? So sure, improbable things happen,
>>but an improbable explanation is an improbable explanation. If you find
>>every other explanation even more improbable, than go with that one. But
>>don't dismiss other explanations as "silly" if the only explanation you got
>>is improbable.
>>
>>-- adam
>>



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