BELGRADE TOTALS UP COST OF BOMBING
By Dimitrije Boarov in Novi Sad
With no end in sight to Nato's air campaign against Yugoslavia, Serb economists say the war has inflicted up to $200bn (£125bn) of damage on the Balkan state, 12 times greater than Yugoslavia's annual gross domestic product and more even than the country suffered in the Second World War.
The figures are approximate and do not always tally, as some include Kosovo while others do not.
The former Deputy Prime Minister, Vuk Draskovic, put direct economic damage at about $40bn after a month of bombing. He told a local television station: "Even if we had the cash now and the bombing stopped, we would need five years to rebuild everything that has been destroyed. The destruction of one month's bombing has been greater than that inflicted throughout the Second World War in Serbia."
But the Yugoslav foreign minister said the destruction totalled $100bn by 18 April. That would suggest much more than $200bn of damage after 54 days of bombing, during which the attacks have increased.
Damage in the first month of the bombing included 13 major bridges, 12 railway stations, 40 industrial companies and six motorways. Almost two months into the Nato campaign, the government says that 50 bridges and five airports have been destroyed, while all forms of communication - roads, railways and river crossings - have been severed.
Some 100 business and residential buildings have been devastated, and reserves of oil and oil derivatives have been wiped out.
The cost of the damage inflicted on Kosovo is unknown but must be immense, as it has not been spared a single night of bombing. Pristina airport and post office have been attacked on several occasions, as has the iron-nickel complex in Glogovac, in which close to $1bn had been invested.
Serbia's first war-time economic and social programme, adopted last week, offers to ensure the payment of reduced salaries for 60,000 workers who have been in effect left jobless because of the destruction of their factories.
But Tomislav Banovic, chairman of the Alliance of Independent Unions, says more than 100,000 people can no longer earn their living.
Miodrag Janic, of the Commission for Assessing War Damage, reported at the end of April that $15-$20bn of damage had been inflicted on the Serbian capital - all this before more destruction at the beginning of May.
In addition to the Jugostroj, Rekord and Grmec factories, many public buildings in the city have been destroyed, including the headquarters of Radio- Television Serbia with its landmark 200m broadcasting tower.
The cost of rebuilding the burnt-out Usce business complex, which had 20,000 square metres of usable surface and used to house the Central Committee of the League of Communists of Yugoslavia, is estimated at close to $50m.
Mr Janjic included the value of destroyed buildings of the federal and the Serbian Ministries of the Interior, the air force building in Zemun, and the airports in Batajnica and Surcin. In the wake of May's bombing, the list ought now to include one of Slobodan Milosevic's official palaces, the headquarters of the chief-of-staff, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese embassy, the Yugoslavia Hotel, municipal police stations, and much more.
The head of Serbia's northern Vojvodina province, Bosko Perosevic, estimates that destruction in his province amounts to six billion German marks (£2bn). He included the seven bridges across the Danube, Sombor airport, oil refineries in Novi Sad and Pancevo, Pancevo's petro-chemical complex, nitrogen fertiliser and aircraft factories, and a dozen public buildings.
But Mr Perosevic's assessment may be on the low side: civil engineers say that DM2bn will be required simply to reconstruct the seven bridges across the Danube.
Dimitrije Boarov is a correspondent for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.
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BLAIR LEFT ISOLATED ON GROUND WAR
Britain and the US will face up to sharp differences this week over sending ground troops in to Kosovo. As Tony Blair dropped a heavy hint that a move to assemble a ground force must be made quickly, US officials played down the need for a speedy decision.
By Stephen Castle, Andrew Grice and Mary Dejevsky
"I don't think Washington is anywhere near accepting that," said one senior Nato source. "Blair has taken the lead but I don't think Germany is there. Don't forget, this could lead to unknown repercussions from Russia, and it could cause governments to fall in Italy, Greece and the Czech Republic."
Downing Street dismissed reports of a split as "nonsense" yesterday. But privately British government sources admitted that London was pressing Washington for an urgent decision on ground troops.
They also admitted there was frustration in Downing Street that the focus of debate in Washington has moved from sending in ground troops to a negotiated settlement, reflecting Mr Clinton's desire to avoid military casualties because of doubts among the public and in Congress.
One Whitehall insider said: "There is no threat to the Bill and Tony relationship, but we want to get a move on: we have to face up to the decision." The Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, travels to Washington tomorrow to ease the deepening strains.
Mr Blair, due to visit Albania and Bulgaria today , insisted it was "not true" he was becoming increasingly frustrated by America's attitude to the war. However, a clear difference of emphasis is suggested by reports that the US is stalling over the use of its "tank-busting" Apache helicopters, stationed in Albania but not yet deployed in combat missions. Last week Nato military sources made clear that pilot training is complete and the aircraft, equipped with "Hellfire" anti-armour missiles, are "ready to go".
General Wesley Clark, Nato's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, is thought to be pressing hard for the use of the 22 Apaches against heavy armour dug in throughout Kosovo.
But The New York Times reported that the go-ahead has not been given because of fears in the Pentagon that the Apaches will be vulnerable to surface-to-air missiles. The newspaper quoted a Pentagon official as saying: "In an age when the American people believe we're in a zero-defects war, there's real apprehension we're going to bring soldiers back in body bags."
Asked about the timing of a decision on ground troops, Mr Blair told a Sunday newspaper: "We are well aware of the harshness of the Balkan winter and the impact that has. It is why Nato has been updating planning for all contingencies."
In the US the argument for ground troops is still being presented by the prominent Senator and presidential hopeful, John McCain. But the situation in Kosovo is no longer at the forefront of public attention, and neither a rousing speech by President Clinton to remind Americans of the reasons for the conflict, nor the visit to Macedonian refugee camps by the first lady, Hillary Clinton, stirred any passions.
Some in Downing Street are concerned that a decision may go by default if the White House does not address the issue, although Whitehall played down the idea of a May 31 deadline. One government source said: "There is no end-of-May cut-off. But the later you go the more dangerous and logistically difficult it becomes. It is a gradual process."
Nato is updating its contingency planning, with an option to enter Kosovo in a "semi- permissive" environment. Officials believe Britain needs support from the three key Nato powers - the US, France and Germany - before putting the question of ground troops before the decision-making North Atlantic Council.
Even then, the hawks would face an uphill battle. One official argued: "The only political support is for the campaign we have now."
In a joint editorial in yesterday's Washington Post, Mr Cook and the US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, said the "brutality" of President Slobodan Milosevic had stiffened their resolve to continue the Nato campaign.
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WAR IN THE BALKANS - ANGER GROWS OVER BOMBS FOUND IN NETS
By Frances Kennedy in Rome
The Italian government will come under increasing pressure this week to demand a halt to the Nato bombing campaign. A proposal to call for a suspension of the air raids is gathering support even among Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema's own party. The debate on Wednesday could create further problems for Mr D'Alema and his fragile five-party coalition.
Revulsion at the Nato "errors", anger at bombs being caught in fishing nets off Venice, and a perception that Washington is over-riding European sensibilities are all fuelling anti-American sentiment in a country that is crucial to the allies. Italian military bases are used daily for air raids over Serbia and Kosovo.
Thousands of pacifists, politicians, left-wing groups, unions, Catholics and voluntary organisations took part in a peace march yesterday from Perugia to Assisi calling for an immediate cease-fire.
>From the start of the conflict Mr D'Alema has had to walk a tightrope
between loyalty to Nato and internal political pressures. The Italian
Communist Party and the Greens have threatened several times to withdraw
their ministers in protest and the ex-Communists, who are not in the
government, are also anti-Nato. But now the anti-war front is widening to
include the separatist Northern League, the moderate People's Party and
some MPs of the main left-wing party, Democratici di Sinistra.
If the motion is passed it will not bind the Prime Minister or immediately affect the air campaign. But it will weaken Mr D'Alema, and if the war is prolonged there could be questions about the use of Italian bases.
Mr d'Alema told the newspaper l'Unita yesterday that "an urgent gesture of peace" was needed in Kosovo, although he added that there was a big difference between "a cease-fire at any cost and the tenacious quest for a just and lasting peace". In a separate interview the Prime Minister said that if Russia and China approved a UN resolution calling for the withdrawal of Serb troops and the safe return of refugees the Nato bombing could be halted even before these conditions were met.
Anti-American sentiment has been exacerbated by the discovery of dozens of Nato cluster bombs, jettisoned by pilots, hauled up in the nets of fishermen off Venice. Two weeks ago, three men were injured when a bomb exploded in their nets and for the last four nights trawlers have stayed in port in protest. Rome has asked Nato for clarification.