I've always thought (and told clients) that we should only say that the current situation is a bubble when we see sizeable commercial property development activity. Commercial property is the canonical crazy-easy-money investment, because it can only be got off the ground with vast amounts of cheap bank credit. Viz: Canary Wharf, the Scandinavian banking crisis, Tokyo, Citibank's second period of economic insolvency during the 80s, Malaysia etc. It's what people get into when bond and equity yields are so depressed that literally nothing else will provide and acceptable income.
Now, all on one day I've been informed of:
An Italian bank spinning off its real estate interests into a quoted subsidiary
Credit Suisse Asset Management starting a real estate investment company
And a guy in Sao Paolo announcing that Brazil is going to have the tallest skyscraper in the world.
Bubble, bubble, who's in trouble. If foundations ever get dug for that tower, in particular, I'll be selling all of my equities, of which I have none.
regards
dd
___________________________________________________________________________
_____
---------------------------------------------------------
This email is confidential to the ordinary user of the
e-mail address to which it was addressed. If you are not
the intended recipient, please notify the sender
IMMEDIATELY on (44) 171 638 5858 and delete the message
from all locations in your computer. You should not copy
this email or use it for any purpose, or disclose its
contents to any person : to do so may be unlawful.
Email is an informal method of communication and is
subject to possible data corruption, either accidentally
or on purpose. Flemings is unable to exercise control
over the content of information contained in
transmissions made via the Internet. For these reasons
it will normally be inappropriate to rely on information
contained on email without obtaining written confirmation
of it.
----------------------------------------------------------
has ?y