France and India Contemplate Strategic Alliance January 15, 1999 SUMMARY Russia, France, China, and India all agree on the need for a counterbalance to U.S. global hegemony. Russia, France and China have cooperated in the UN against U.S. initiatives, and Russia and France are both strengthening relations with India. However, the inability to bridge the gap of hostility between India and China may prove to be the Achilles heel of this bifurcated anti-U.S. alliance. FORECAST Following his four-day visit to France and talks with his French counterpart Alain Richard, Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes said India and France intended to turn their cooperation over defense into a close long-term military relationship. Fernandes told the Press Trust of India (PTI) that the two countries had explored possibilities for establishing a military relationship that would include joint ventures and technology transfers. The Indian Defense Minister said that France's rejection of the U.S. proposal to impose economic sanctions on India following the nuclear tests conducted in May 1998 encouraged positive developments in the relationship between Paris and New Delhi. Neither the Indian nor the French Defense Minister commented directly on whether they discussed potential Indian arms purchases from France at the meeting. The formation of a strengthened military bond between France and India follows the recent enhancing of politico-military relationships between Russia and France, Russia and India, and between both Russia and France and China. At a meeting between French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine and his Russian counterpart Igor Ivanov in Moscow this week, both countries declared they held almost identical positions on all international problems, mainly on Iraq and Kosovo. When Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov also met visiting the French Foreign Minister, the Russians voiced their concern that the United States has come to dominate international affairs. Primakov said, "We are fully aware that measures are needed to preserve the order that stabilizes the international situation." At the meeting, Russia reiterated its rejection of NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe, and France stressed a need for increased self-reliance on the part of the Western European powers. Further evidence of the close tie between Russia and France took place on January 14 when Russian chief delegate to the UN Sergei Lavrov hailed France's proposal for a new UN policy towards Iraq. Lavrov said that French proposals, including lifting of the oil embargo and new system of weapons monitoring, were "a very important and useful move, offering a chance to start searching more fruitfully for a way out of the dead-end." Clearly, Moscow and Paris are now openly coordinating their actions in an attempt to counterbalance Washington's global dominance. We anticipate further coordination of the Russian and French stance on international issues to emerge during the planned visit to Paris by Russian President Boris Yeltsin's on January 28-29. The visit will be Yeltsin's first foreign trip since October of last year, signaling the importance both sides assign to their mutual relations. Besides strengthening its politico-military ties with France, Russia has been working intensively to fortify its respective alliances with China and India. On the one hand, Russia-Chinese relations are currently at their best since the early 1950s, largely due to Yevgeni Primakov's diplomatic efforts during the past two years before he left his post as Russia's Foreign Minister for his new position as Prime Minister. And, on the other, at the conclusion of Primakov's visit to India in December of last year, Russia and India issued a joint statement in which they condemned the U.S. missile strikes against Iraq and announced their intention to form a new strategic partnership. The two countries signed a new long-term defense agreement, which includes joint research and military technology transfer. The details of the new arrangement will undoubtedly be discussed at India and Russia's next bilateral summit meeting. Culminating these diplomatic initiatives, Russian PM Primakov proposed in December a Russian-Chinese-Indian "strategic triangle." Russia, China, France, and India all share the view that U.S. global hegemony must be counterbalanced. Blocs are being established along Russia-China-France and Russia-India-France lines. Yet in spite of Primakov's suggestion of a geopolitical realignment bringing China and India together for a common end, he did not elicit a positive response from either country. Both countries have, nevertheless, continued to strengthen their ties with Moscow, which has fortified Russia's political position in the Asia. But Russia can not close the loop. What stands in the way of this realignment is the simple fact that India and China consider each other as primary regional enemies. The animosity between China and India is therefore the "Achilles heel" of the emerging alliance among France, India, Russia, and China, an alliance that aspires to re-create a multi-polar world in response to U.S. dominance. While Chinese-Indian conflict could spoil this relationship even without prompting, the U.S. could exploit this weakness to destabilize this new geopolitical alignment.
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