>> It seems clear to me that Russian actions
>>should be opposed.
Definitely, but maybe for reasons, other than yours (interpolating maybe
wrongly)?
>> Does anyone know of any movement to protest against
>>Yeltsin's ambitions?
For the time being, nothing much even on the alter channels...
>Why should we want to support Islamic militants? Look what happened in
>Afghanistan after Russian pullot - women being denied the most basic human
>rights, public executions.
That is, assuming - in a revolutionary way - that women, especially in those
parts of the world, are human beings? Home Page: http://www.rawa.org and
mirror site: http://members.xoom.com/ra_wa
>Th best we can hope is a swift Soviet action that bring some stability to
>the region. According to th eenclosed Stratfor anaylis, there is a chance
>that it can be accomlished this time.
With all due respect, >wojtek, what, practically!, do you propose???
>encl. Stratfor analysis
>Moscow Poised for Chechnya Invasion
>October 1, 1999
>
>Summary
>
>Russia is poised to launch a limited invasion of Chechnya and Moscow is
>likely to accomplish its goals.
WHOSE goals? esp., given pending elections? doesn't take too refined
shamanism to provoke mass hysteria to one's benefit, does it?
>Right now, the tide of political support for war
>runs strong in Russia, though the international community and some
>politicians are encouraging non-aggression.
"The tide of political support" can be questioned, at least, even if on the
scarce info on Johnson's Russia List - and ORT transmissions - and any
Russian contacts you may have - whichever is more convenient.
>But Russian forces are not
>fully prepared. As a result, the cost in resources, personnel and finances
>will be severe.
Translated?
>The momentum for launching a war in Chechnya is at a crescendo in Moscow
>and cannot be ignored by the Kremlin or the Defense Ministry.
Permutating: The momentum for launching the war in Chechnya is at crescendo
in the Kremlin AND the Defense Ministry and IS NOT TO BE ignored by (the
crowds) in Moscow...
>The Russian
>population is feverish for retaliation against terrorist attacks.
Sheer, masterfully inspired panic might be an approximation.
> Chechen
>rebels are being blamed for bombing civilian apartment buildings throughout
>Russia, killing 292 people.
Even "leakages" on ORT give out a clue that this might not be a 100% the
case. And the less state-bound (? right word?) radio transmits are even less
sure this is the case.
> The extent of public outrage has caused
>center-left parties and politicians to join the witch-hunt.
Could be the other way round, too - witch-hunt stimulating public panix?
>To make matters
>worse, Russia’s NTV aired videotapes this week of Chechen rebels mutilating
>Russian POWs during the first Chechen war.
You have no idea what's on air these days - unless you have the access to
sat-transmissions :-)))))
>These sentiments are already starting to ebb, however, and invasion plans
>may be threatened if not carried out soon. Opposition to war is building in
>the West,
Oh! another Kosov@???????
>but has not reached critical mass, certainly not to the point of
>sending observer missions into Chechnya.
How long, and, more importantly, how much/many should it take?
> Though Russian media support the
>war effort, it is skeptical of the capabilities of Russian forces. If
>momentum flags, the Defense Ministry may be unable to use the harsh winter
>climate against the guerrillas. Due to weather conditions, Russian forces
>cannot sustain a massive campaign into December and January. Accordingly, a
>second Chechen war will come to a screeching halt if the Russians delay a
>ground invasion.
A ground war will claim too many casualties. which is the too bad publicity
before elections (uninformed guess)
>Russia’s window of opportunity for a successful ground invasion is 60 days,
>starting now, according to Segodnya, a Moscow daily.
Huh, Segodnya is not very leftist, if anything...
>Russian officials at
>the Kremlin, Federal Security Bureau and the Defense and Interior
>Ministries have done more than just cultivate an appetite for war at home.
>They have also guarded against dissent among the ranks, having learned some
>strong lessons from the first Chechen war.
This *is* a puzzle (language barier, guess)
The rest (snipped) I guess, is tactix, but not strategy :-((((( What IS West's (!) strategy ( at least, in media-representations)?