On balance, therefore, the Stratfor view is this:
. . . Speculative fever, extremely high price earnings ratios and the appetite for profit all argue for a pause in the bull market. At the same time, sentiment figures indicate that a great deal of the enthusiasm has been beaten out of the market. . . .
* The foundations for a mid-term recession lasting a year or so are simply not yet in place. They could materialize fairly quickly . . .
* The rise in commodity prices should be a negative. However, given the deflationary threats and fears of this summer, the rise in commodity prices may even be a positive sign . . .
* There certainly ought to be a recession some time in the next 36 months, and we would not be surprised to see it sooner rather than later. . . .
In short, the United States appears to remain on the path it has been pursuing for a generation. It is quite likely that the stock market will take a serious break from the past five years of growth. . . .
. . . The U.S. economy has operated under its own power for the
past several years, and it will continue to do so. In our view, it
may not expand as it did in the past. . . .
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Looks like they have all the bases covered. Each key point is hedged. Wish I could get paid for writing this poop. Reminds me of the Art Buchwald "good news/bad news" columns.
mbs