>> How significant are these trends -- or is their significance anything we
can meaningfully assess? Consider for starters one example: their possible
implications for global politics. For the same projections that would
result in an ultimate global population decline would also bring about a
significant redistribution of world population. In 1995, the ratio of
population between "less developed" and "more developed" regions stood at
about four to one; in 2050, by these projections, it would be seven to one.
The balance of population would shift dramatically not only between given
countries but even between entire continents. In 1995, for example, the
estimated populations of Europe (including Russia) and Africa (including
Egypt and the Maghreb states) were almost exactly equal. In 2050, by these
projections, Africans would outnumber Europeans by over three to one.<<
what possible implications for global politics? as if global politics is conducted on the basis of one vote per person. if only. and i loved the way 'redistribution' just had to be tossed in there. makes one think the redistribution of wealth has something to do with the poor outnumbering the rich. again, if only.
just goes to show that demographics is a nasty pastime whether its predicting 'underpopulation' of 'overpopulation', it always seems to be a fear of black, starving masses. i think population growth estimates always seem to get it wrong. i can't remember the last time they were right with such long-range predictions. they tend to leave aside a whole host of elements in calculations that determine popn numbers, and are only predictions based on the expectation that quite specific trends (in fertility, child mortality, movements, etc will continue), making it one of the more dubious so-called sciences about. it's got little to do with actual predictions, much to do with influencing political and economic decisions, pushing certain well-known buttons, arranging noxious classifications...
the early australian slogan of 'populate or perish' seems to be making something of a comeback here based on similar fantasies and projections, sans the overt panics about darkies to our north, but nonetheless evident, since it's always posed as a comparison (ie., indonesia has trillions of starving people, 'we' have something they want to steal).
who are the American Enterprise Institute and the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies?
Angela _________