The attached AP article notes the revival of the Uraguay left as an electoral force. In combo with Chavez's win in Venezuala and (to a more minor extent) the soft-center left alliance win in Argentina, there is an apparent revival of left involvement in winning coalitions. Of course, this can be (and I am sure will be) dismissed as mere capitulation to neoliberalism - ie. Clinton-Blairism with a spanish accent - but I wonder if there are broader analyses out there on what's been happening with the Latin America left and its mass mobilization. Is there changes at the grassroots or is this all just insider-political coalition games?
--Nathan =============================
October 31, 1999 Poll: Socialist Leads Uruguay Race
By The Associated Press MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay (AP) -- A socialist was headed for a win in the first round of Uruguay's presidential ballot Sunday and will face a ruling party opponent in a runoff, according to an exit poll.
Tabare Vazquez, 59, of the leftist Broad Front coalition, captured about 39 percent of the ballot to 32 percent for Jorge Batlle, 73, of the ruling Colorado Party, the independent projection said.
The respected Factum polling group projected that Luis Lacalle, a former president and nominee of the center-right National Party, would finish third with 22 percent and be eliminated from the race.
Two minor candidates lagged far behind in the Factum projection, which was broadcast locally on television.
``This is a night of joy,'' said Vazquez, who went on television anticipating that final returns would give him a first-round victory.
But he said all projections pointed to another month of hard campaigning for a Nov. 28 deciding round and said: ``We have to win two times over.''
Authorities said first official returns would be released hours later.
Raucous celebrations erupted in this small South American nation as both Tabare's Broad Front coalition and the ruling party of President Julio Maria Sanguinetti celebrated.
Supporters of both parties waved flags, beat drums and noisily paraded in caravans of cars through this capital.
A medical doctor and former Montevideo mayor, Vazquez has harnessed voter cynicism with Uruguay's two traditional parties, taking the government to task for double-digit unemployment and not meeting health, housing and educational needs.
No candidate had been expected to garner the simple majority needed Sunday for an outright victory. But the compulsory election by 2.4 million voters confirmed the newfound strength of the left at the ballot box.
Here as elsewhere in South America, voters are flirting with the left. Argentina's center-left opposition Alliance won the Oct. 24 presidential election. In Chile, Ricardo Lagos is favored by the polls to become the country's first elected socialist in three decades, though a right-wing foe has narrowed Lagos' lead as the Dec. 12 election approaches.
In Uruguay, the campaign has been characterized by talk about whether the left has truly moderated since the Cold War-era.
Vazquez has proposed an ``emergency'' plan to spend more than $200 million to create tens of thousands of jobs. He pledges to make the wealthier pay more income tax while exempting those who earn less than $1,200 a month.
He hopes to turn around a listless economy marked by a 10 percent unemployment rate he blames on Sanguinetti's strict fiscal policies.
Batlle, an economist, charges that the Broad Front, a diverse coalition founded in 1971, includes fringe Marxist elements that could disrupt or even derail the free-market financial policies already in place.
Vazquez dismisses characterizations that he is an unreformed Marxist, responding in an interview this past week: ``No, I am eclectic.''