>i've been meaning to say for some time now: your predictions on the
>situation in indonesia a year or so ago have turned out exactly right.
>me thinks there'll be australian soldiers in east timor in a weeks time.
>any thoughts?
I reckon there'll be Australian soldiers in East Timor by the end of next week if the Indonesian government says they can come, and they'll never get there if the Indonesian government says they can't. Foreign Minister Downer has equated going in unilaterally to try to 'keep' the 'peace', even after a pro-independence vote is confirmed on Monday, with a declaration of war on Indonesia. Having said that, that's now what it would be.
Howard came out today to, er, contextualise Downer's statement, and said Indonesia had better be careful of Australian lives, as this would 'upset relations'. The bloke really knows how to kick arse, eh? And, again/still, East Timorese lives don't get a mention.
Anyway, the pro-integration militias have arms and chains of command of their own nowadays; I don't reckon Indonesia has any direct control, and I'm not sure the Indonesian regulars haven't got their hands full elsewhere. Their election has not solved any problems, and I think Habibie is likely to retain government (many Muslems apparently don't want a woman as president and many are leaving Megawati's side to support Wahid; and others fear liberal democracy will cast asunder their 17000 assorted isles - *Panca Sila* and its implicit 'guided democracy' line still has sway) but Habibie's Golkar Party will have fatal legitimacy problems and already excite many instances of hatred and suspicion at the provincial loathing. Habibie himself is very pessimistic, I'm told, and one wonders why he remains in the race.
The UN effectively cut East Timor loose on Thursday, Australia has never really engaged anyway, and I think Indonesia will expedite a Pontian washing-of-the-hands forthwith. That'll make foreign or UN assistance hard to envisage, because then it'll be a clear picking-sides-in-a-civil-war exercise, and we all know there's not much future in that. So, it all depends on Indonesia for now, and that all depends on the presidential contest and strife elsewhere in the country - not much hope there, I'm afraid.
Failing that, it's a matter of relative numbers and arms within East Timor. That too seems hard to call. In the longer term (should the civil strife be surprisingly short'n'decisive), I suspect much depends on oil prices and who gets the concessions to develop the fields, and under what terms. As I don't see much of an economic basis to East Timor other than oil and sustained high oil prices, the locals are not well placed to bargain.
So, I wouldn't be an East Timorese for quids. Their only consolation might yet be that they wouldn't be Indonesians for quids. The whole thing, from Sumatra to West Irian, is a bloody horror story in the making, I reckon. And Oz had better review its illegal aliens policy or buy up big on marine-recon planes and ships. And we know where we'd put our hard-earned on that one, eh?
And I agree with all you say about 'reconciliation' - I just fail to see much other than opaque reiterations of long-established ways of thinking about the business in Jacques' words. But then, reiteration ain't a bad thing right now.
Cheers, Rob.