Financial Times - August 14, 1999
AMERICAS CIA: Rehearsal for sleepless night in Seattle By Mark Suzman in Washington
Forget nuclear espionage and fomenting unrest in third world countries. As part of a long search for a raison d'etre in the post-Cold War era, the US Central Intelligence Agency is turning its attention to potential trade wars and adverse economic trends.
The National Intelligence Council, a body charged with advising George Tenet, director of the CIA, on potential threats to US national security, earlier this month held a special mock-World Trade Organisation conference in Washington to try to prepare for the real thing.
The focus was November's WTO ministerial meeting in Seattle to launch a new round of global trade talks.
US trade officials said they were aware of the exercise but had not participated.
The CIA said that the meeting had taken place to help "prepare policymakers" for the rigours ahead. "We routinely hold such conferences in order to help sharpen the level of debate about important issues," a spokesman said.
Officials said the Washington meeting was part of a concerted attempt by the CIA to improve its analysis of global economic issues after the agency was criticised for failing to anticipate the scale and consequences of the Asian financial crisis that erupted two years ago.
"They are trying to improve their scenario planning, to take more account of economic intelligence," a senior policy adviser to the administration said.
Delegates to the mini conference included a wide range of intelligence officers, former senior trade officials, academics and others.
Many are understood to have played the parts of representatives of other countries - in particular of traditional trade rivals such as the EU and Japan - to try and simulate what kinds of debate and disagreements might be heard in November.
The NIC brings together analysts from across the US intelligence spectrum as well as outside experts to produce comprehensive studies, known as "National Intelligence Estimates" on issues that are regarded as critical to US national security.
Traditionally these have ranged from how to deal with Russia and China, to regional conflicts, international terrorism and humanitarian crises such as Bosnia.
The CIA was widely rumoured to have stolen the French delegation's position papers near the conclusion of the last global trade round, the Uruguay Round, in 1993. But the decision to give such prominence to the forthcoming ministerial meeting appears to mark a new departure for US intelligence.
Special interest groups - such as those representing environmentalists, labour unions and other aggressive protestors are already threatening to overshadow the formal agenda at the November WTO gathering.
But there was no word yesterday as to whether any of the participants at the mock meeting earlier this month acted out one of the expected highlights of the main event - a proposed march by environmentalists in turtle suits to highlight support for a trade ban on shrimp caught without special nets to protect the endangered reptiles.