Speaking of Indonesia, there are a two themes being sounded in recent reports on East Timor that make it sound as if the after-effects of Kosovo might already be making a mark. (Recent reports of course all have that tentative feel that characterizes the press before it's quite sure what the government wants it to think. But to its credit -- and against past form -- the press has not yet been saying that there is blame to be found on both sides. Perhaps this too is a carry over from Kosovo? Or perhaps it's just so early.)
One is the recurrent mention that "a UN force is being contemplated, but it does not look at present as if the Security Council would okay it" -- which usually means China and/or Russia is against it.
The second is the similarly recurrent mention that the Indonesia military has a plan, in the event of an emergency to "move as many as 250,000 Timorese to safety." When you add to that the fact that the militias have free reign to run amok for the next three months -- not until then will the national assembly convene to pick a president -- that sounds suspiciously like a new & improved version of ethnic cleansing. Since Indonesia is under a lame duck president for the next three months, I think the situation in Timor is being run almost directly by General Wiranto. Since, if the military really wanted to crack down on the militias, they would have moved in before the election, this whole referendum idea begins to take on the shape of a well-timed plan. (It couldn't very well be stopped with bombs when the government is in transition to democracy.) And any intervention will have the dangerous possible side effect of beginning the Yugoslavization of Indonesia by encouraging succession. Which objection doesn't sound as theoretically far off as it once did.
But hopefully this all paranoid delusions. Sometimes I'm my own Sunday gasbag :o)
Michael
Michael