Rakesh wrote:
> This suggests that the US wants a pretext to send in troops if not
into
Timor then close by as conflict between Habibie and the military
escalates
over control of the state, no? <
i'm not at all sure this is what's happening. right at this moment, i'm more inclined to give a more paranoid reading of the rumours of a coup, contrary to what i've been implying up to now -- ie., to read it in terms of the immediate and tangible effects: the APEC meeting came pretty much to the conclusion that, given the possibility of a military coup, this meant they had to back off criticising habibe/indonesia. sometimes, the threat of a coup is all it takes to arrive where you want to go without having to actually undertake the coup. after all, if there was a coup, this would mean the escalation of conflict inside indonesia, as we saw a couple of days ago, and the govt/military hardly wants to be pincered by what might also be a shift into armed resistance in east timor (with the UN withdrawing, the 'discipline' of falantil will waver, and already has by all accounts, despite attempts by the UDI to reign them in with prayers and faith in the UN and a very catholic veneration of matyrdom.)
but on sending in troops. it might be the late night, it might be the paranoia talking again, but i think this has all been a charade, at least in terms of sending in any troops prior to the indonesian military completing a re-shaping the east timorese political landscape. the UN and the Australian govt already had knowledge of these plans over a month ago. it was a charade to pacify (and divert) any attempts to demand a change in policy. see article below -- i particularly love the comment that the situation in east timor seems to be improving. i'm sure it is, there's not much left for it to have got worse, but we don't seem to know much given the military's quite effective control over "all social life", as they said.
japan is irrelevant to this. china is a player only insofar as they support indonesia out of wanting to maintain the principle of non-intervention in sovereign nations, and have said they'll use their veto powers to block any intervention. but everyone, aside from the people of east timor, win. business as usual. the australian dollar goes up.
> Tense times, no?<
tense is understating it. and frightening people with the prospect of 100,000 refugees (see below) has got to be the most clever tactic i've seen so far to make those of good conscience think, "mmm... sounds like a lot; they better stay where they are." those who fled the UN compound overnight did so because they were told to head for the hills because the UN was pulling out. the 1,000 or so still there, most of whom are women with children and many wounded unable to head easily into the mountains, could more than easily be evacuated to australia and new zealand. apologies for the rant, but i'm more than tense.
Angela _________
BREAKING NEWS
http://www.theage.com.au/breaking/9909/09/A58613-1999Sep9.shtml
US will back force in East Timor: Howard Source: AAP | Published: Thursday September 9 3:30:55 PM
Prime Minister John Howard said today the United States would support a multi-national peacekeeping force in East Timor and had not ruled out the use of troops.
Up to 4,500 Australians could be sent there as part of a peacekeeping force, Mr Howard told reporters.
"The idea is that we would initially commit 2,000 then after a period of time as we move into the final phase that we would be willing and able to increase that commitment to 4,500," he said.
Mr Howard said he had spoken to President Bill Clinton today and had received an assurance of US assistance.
He also said that the United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) would be staying in East Timor in some form, despite yesterday's announcement that it was pulling out.
"UNAMET will be staying in a reduced form," he said.
"If there is a decision to commit an international peacekeeping force then the United States will support that commitment in a tangible way," Mr Howard said.
"Discussions are continuing on the nature of that support. "I regarded the American position, as expressed to me by President Clinton, the tone of the conversation and the language used as more positive than have been some of the assessments that have been made."
Mr Howard emphasised that any peacekeeping force was contingent on having a mandate from the UN, the agreement of Indonesia and the participation of other nations.
He said there had been some signs of improvement in the East Timor situation. ----------- Downer says no room for 100,000 East Timorese refugees
Source: AAP | Published: Thursday September 9 5:30:17 PM http://www.theage.com.au/breaking/9909/09/A58775-1999Sep9.shtml
It was impossible to airlift terrified East Timorese refugees hiding from violent pro-Indonesian militias in the United Nations compound in Dili, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said today.
Hundreds of the 5,000 East Timorese who crammed into the UNAMET compound earlier this week fled overnight, fearing UNAMET was about to pull out and leave them unprotected.
Australia is on standby to airlift out the UNAMET staff, including East Timorese staff, should an evacuation be necessary.
But Mr Downer said the refugees would not be brought out.
'We're talking about some in the UNAMET compound but we're talking about possibly as many as 100,000, some may say even more, displaced people both in East Timor and out of East Timor,' he told reporters.
'It's just not the real world, we can't airlift them all out anywhere. It's just not possible.'
Mr Downer said Indonesia had been spoken to about the importance of protecting the refugees.
He said there was no expectation that the people would be massacred by the militias, but they were expected to be forced out of the province and into other parts of Indonesia.
'I'm not saying that's acceptable - it's not acceptable. But there is an expectation that that might be their fate,' Mr Downer said.
International foreign ministers meeting today pledged to provide the humanitarian assistance needed to help the displaced people, he said.