> As I understand you (and please do clarify if I have misread you), you
are arguing that the Indonesian military (or some powerful faction) is
threatening a coup if not allowed to invade East Timor.<
it was too much of a ramble, right? late night, tired, angry... i'll try and be more precise. no. i'm saying that the *rumours* of a coup by the indonesian military have been used to buffer the indonesian govt from criticism. the rumours gained in momentum after the APEC meeting, and are what justified the softening of rhetoric against the indonesian govt, as well as a few notable bouquets to habibe himself for having "done the right thing to support the referendum in the first place". habibe is a figurehead, always has been. there is effective military rule in indonesia, and habibe's presence merely allows the pretense of the civilian rule to continue. but it's still an important pretense. (it is likely in any case that wiranto will become deputy, and there is no reason for the military to put that strategy at risk -- a strategy which worked quite well in the philippines with the aquino/ramos combination.) moreover, the *rumours* of a coup gained priority in the apparent calculations *after* it became more than apparent that any shift into overt military authority in indonesia would spark (has sparked) riots there. ie., the rumours have done the work of any coup without there having to be a 'real coup' (ie., an overt military control) which would intensify protests *within* indonesia. further, any shift into overt military control within indonesia will most likely mean that falantil will see no other option that to recommence armed resistance, where possible, which to now has been halted because of the supposition of formal democracy in indonesia (as well as the political strength of the udi within the cnrt.)
does that make more sense? (i also think that in terms of a UN intervention, this was always a matter or timing. there is a significant difference between the UN going into east timor before/durin g the ballot, and going in weeks after, at least from the perspective of the military's ability to conduct a war against those who voted for independance. all the talk, in australia in particular, about trying real hard to put together a UN contingent is a sham, from this perspective; and is only a performance to ease australian protests against aust govt support for indonesia. in *july*, the australian govt, the US and the UN had documents which detailed the campaign of terror and displacement that would occur if east timorese voted for independance. everyone knew, a military force could have been put together then, or, alternatively, the UN could have refused to hold the ballot knowing what it did, and waited for the situation within east timor to shift ground a little.
in short, the principal elements of these foreign policy calculations, spin and timing have been a) the possible expansion and reignition of indonesian rebellion (especially one that is not ethnicised but directed against the military, who are also indonesian capitalists); b) the ability to fend off any shift in australian support for the indonesian military, which would produce a weaker military for indonesians to confront; and c) the ownership of east timor's resources, coffee and oil, the latter being already decided in australia and indonesia's favour before the ballot took place.
> I would imagine that the US is looking to come out ahead in this just
as it did monetarily gain from the Gulf War at the beginning of the
decade after collecting from its 'allies'.<
i'm not at all sure where the US interest lies in all this. it seems to me rather disinterested, other than to shore up our PM's political standing by saying nice things about him. the US has been much more ready and able to sever military and financial connections with indonesia; which is partly how australia stepped into the 'breach' in terms of military training, etc. the US, like Japan, have a rather abstract, though perhaps still important, interest in maintaining a 'stable' (ie., acquiescent) poltical environment in s.e asia. but there is little scope for the US to take any overt action down in these parts, given the horror over asia/viet nam/etc the US still carries. i think the critical players here are indonesia, australia, portugal (for largely internal reasons), malaysia, thailand, and china (for reasons to do with maintaining support for the 'one china' policy), britain (for reasons that have much to do with arms markets). sorry, but if you take the gulf war as an example, or even yugoslavia (which i still happen to think had much more to do with europe and thereby the US), then i think you're a little off-base.
below, a press release from the PRD.
Angela _________
Press Statement PRD's HEAD OFFICE BOMBED WITH MOLOTOV COCKTAILS BY SOME UNIDENTIFIED PEOPLE
After two days had been terrorized by rocks thrown, the head office of the PRD finally attacked with Molotov cocktail and burned. According to an eyewitness from the block security guard named Begi, this terror happened at 01.45 (twenty minutes after last guest from Moestopo university gone home). The bombing done by some unidentified people driving a blue car with police number D 622 Z. Still according to eyewitness, this car was actually went around PRD's head office for about 5 times. The damages caused by this terror, the front door and windows was burned, window glass broken, one banner of PRD burned, and also the electricity installation of the office. It can be seen clearly that the terror was done for political reasons. From the damages caused by the burning, and the process of burning itself, the terror was done by thugs paid by the New Order regime that for these long efforts by all ways to stop all political activities of PRD. We deemed that this terror is really related with the political activities taken by PRD, especially, the PRD's activities in recent days. First, discussion, political statements on East Timor issue where PRD supported the result of the ballot that won by the independence group. Second, discussion, political statements, and mass actions in rejecting the National Safety and Security Law. Although, the terrors would never stop the political activities of PRD that aimed to maintain real democracy in Indonesia. Actions of terror will even strengthen our belief, that the New Order Regime and its next generation should be resisted until its defeat. For this terror we call for your solidarity support by making political statement or action on this issue.
Jakarta 10 September, 1999 (02.12 AM) Central Leadership Committee of the People's Democratic Party (KPP-PRD) Faisol Riza - Chairperson; Ida Nasim Mh - Secretary. *****************************
The other groups in the 9 September demonstration were:
Peoples Democratic Party (PRD), AJI (Independent Journalists Allianjce - Aliansi Jurnalis Independen), MPD (Masyarakat Profesional untuk Demokrasi - Professionals for Democracy), SNB (People and National Solidarity - Solidaritas Nusa Bangsa), ISAI (Institute for Study for Information Flow), ALDERA (Peoples Democratic Alliance), FORMACI (Forum Mahasiswa Ciputat, IAIN Jakarta, HMI Jakarta, Univ Gunadarma, Univ Moestopoberagama, LMND - National Students League for Democracy), SIP (The Voice of Caring Mothers - Suara Ibu Peduli), Satu Merah Panggung (Ratna Sarumpaet), PDI-P Tanjung Priok, FNPBI (Indonesian National Front for Labour Struggles), ISJ (Institut Sosial Jakarta), PMKRI (Catholic Students Association), IKJ (Jakarta Arts Institute - Institut Kesenian Jakarta).