> The PDS rose to second place in the Land election in Thuringia (former
East
> Germany) yesterday. The SPD was down 11% to 18.5%, and the CDU was up 8.4%
> to 51%. It can now rule without having to be in coalition with the SPD.
>
> The PDS up 4.8% is now second at 21.4%.
The bare percentages excagerate the a little bit: Turnout was under 60%, in
absolute numbers of votes the CDU even lost a few thousand votes, but the
SPD only got half of the votes as 1994, only the PDS won in absolute
numbers!
Exact numbers are at
http://www.tls.thueringen.de/wahlen/Landtagswahlen/lw_vgland.htm
According to an analysis showed yesterday in TV the SPD lost 100.000 votes
to the non-voters 70.000 to the CDU and 40.000 to the PDS. They won 15.000
from the Greens.
Numbers for North Rhine Westphalia:
http://www.wahlen.nrw.de/wahlen/kommwahl/kowastart.htm
> I hope Johannes will comment on the results. I wonder if the experience of
> being jointly in opposition will make SPD members more open to alliance
> with the PDS and shift the left wing of social democracy a little more.
I dont think so. The SPD chairperson in Thuringia was already open for an
alliance with the PDS. Now he is blamed personally for the defeat. In
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the SPD switched from a coalition with the CDU to a
coalition with the PDS.
> This would be uninteresting except that the PDS represents a historical
> memory of a non-capitalist economic past that was not totally
unsuccessful.
Dont be too romantic about the PDS.
> The FDP fell to 1.1% not helped by its president advising its supporters
to
> vote CDU! Clearly all the protest votes against the Schroeder governments
> economy package are going to the CDU not the FDP, and it may never
recover.
Lets hope so. The FDP is the most radical advocate of gloabalism and reform
nowadays.
> In local elections in North Rhine Westfalia traditionally SPD, the CDU
> again moved ahead of the SPD.
Thats even more important than the Thuringia result. Traditionally North
Rhine Westfalia is the SPD heartland. Now the SPD will lose a lot of city
governments or at least has to share with the CDU or Greens. A lot of SPD
bureaucrats will loose their jobs.
> In certain local areas such as Cologne, the PDS got a toe hold by going up
> to 2% of the vote.
Thats not so bad, but its no a great result as well. In a city like Cologne
2% should go to the left wing fringe.
> Gysi of the PDS was reported as saying that the results are consistent
with
> the steady progress of the party. It is not clear to me from a distance
> whether this is really so, since it could be accounted for by protest
> votes.
Regarding the PDS something important has emerged in the election analysis:
In the east the PDS is not longer primarily seen as the party of the old
East German leadership, but as the sole defender of social 'justice'.
Formerly the SPD was seen is this position thats the significane of the PDS
coming in second.
> Nor is it clear whether the PDS is establishing pockets of
> supporters in the west, which could run a party organisation effectively.
The PDS in the West is a strange beast: At the best it works as the local
umbrella for all kind of left-wing activities: So you have Stalinists,
Maoists, Trotzkists of different flavours under one roof usually the level
of cooperation is rather low. At the worst one local faction has kidnapped
the whole PDS organisation and does not let anyonelse in. In the West the
PDS is nothing impressive at all.
> In Brandenburg this week the SPD decided to govern in alliance with the
CDU
> not the PDS. But it was openly debated and Regina Hildebrandt, the
> prominent minister for work, publically disassociated herself from the
> decision. Anti-communism seems to be on the retreat.
Its really difficult to present the PDS as the 'communist' threat. The case
with Regine Hildebrandt was as follow: 1. Though the PDS was in oppositions
their MP were working closely together with the officials in Hildebrandts
ministry. 2. The CDU attacked Regine Hildebrandt in an unfair way during the
election campaign.
> In that Land, as in
> Berlin which also has a grand coalition of CDU-SPD, the PDS now has the
> advantage of being the main opposition party.
>
> Is the SPD shaken by these results?
I think we will see some shock waves from North Rhine Westphalia result in
the next days, but I am not sure in whats the dircetion will be. Either it
could be a shift even more to the right and defending the budget cuts or it
could be an open left revolt. Personally I think the first option is most
proable. But if the SPD looses the state elections in North Rhine Westphalia
next years things inside the SPD might change.
> It is possible Schroeder is calculating
> that economic unpopularity from cuts early in his term of office is worth
> bearing if in a couple of years time Germany has come out of its downturn,
> and he looks a sound guardian of the country's economy. Presumably he
> thinks he can ride out discontent within the party.
Thats are my thoughts as well. Schröder is calculating of commiting all the
cruelities in the beginning, loose all state elections (this has the side
effect that no strong state governor can challenge him in his own camp) and
win federal elections in 2002, when people have forgot about his cuts or
have get used to it.
Johannes