> Chris Burford wrote:
>
>
> > The PDS rose to second place in the Land election in Thuringia (former
> East
> > Germany) yesterday. The SPD was down 11% to 18.5%, and the CDU was up
8.4%
> > to 51%. It can now rule without having to be in coalition with the SPD.
> >
> > The PDS up 4.8% is now second at 21.4%.
> The bare percentages excagerate the a little bit: Turnout was under 60%,
in
> absolute numbers of votes the CDU even lost a few thousand votes, but the
> SPD only got half of the votes as 1994, only the PDS won in absolute
> numbers!
> Exact numbers are at
> http://www.tls.thueringen.de/wahlen/Landtagswahlen/lw_vgland.htm
> According to an analysis showed yesterday in TV the SPD lost 100.000 votes
> to the non-voters 70.000 to the CDU and 40.000 to the PDS. They won 15.000
> from the Greens.
> Numbers for North Rhine Westphalia:
> http://www.wahlen.nrw.de/wahlen/kommwahl/kowastart.htm
> > I hope Johannes will comment on the results. I wonder if the experience
of
> > being jointly in opposition will make SPD members more open to alliance
> > with the PDS and shift the left wing of social democracy a little more.
> I dont think so. The SPD chairperson in Thuringia was already open for an
> alliance with the PDS. Now he is blamed personally for the defeat. In
> Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the SPD switched from a coalition with the CDU to a
> coalition with the PDS.
> > This would be uninteresting except that the PDS represents a historical
> > memory of a non-capitalist economic past that was not totally
> unsuccessful.
> Dont be too romantic about the PDS.
> > The FDP fell to 1.1% not helped by its president advising its supporters
> to
> > vote CDU! Clearly all the protest votes against the Schroeder
governments
> > economy package are going to the CDU not the FDP, and it may never
> recover.
> Lets hope so. The FDP is the most radical advocate of gloabalism and
reform
> nowadays.
> > In local elections in North Rhine Westfalia traditionally SPD, the CDU
> > again moved ahead of the SPD.
> Thats even more important than the Thuringia result. Traditionally North
> Rhine Westfalia is the SPD heartland. Now the SPD will lose a lot of city
> governments or at least has to share with the CDU or Greens. A lot of SPD
> bureaucrats will loose their jobs.
> > In certain local areas such as Cologne, the PDS got a toe hold by going
up
> > to 2% of the vote.
> Thats not so bad, but its no a great result as well. In a city like
Cologne
> 2% should go to the left wing fringe.
> > Gysi of the PDS was reported as saying that the results are consistent
> with
> > the steady progress of the party. It is not clear to me from a distance
> > whether this is really so, since it could be accounted for by protest
> > votes.
> Regarding the PDS something important has emerged in the election
analysis:
> In the east the PDS is not longer primarily seen as the party of the old
> East German leadership, but as the sole defender of social 'justice'.
> Formerly the SPD was seen is this position thats the significane of the
PDS
> coming in second.
> > Nor is it clear whether the PDS is establishing pockets of
> > supporters in the west, which could run a party organisation
effectively.
> The PDS in the West is a strange beast: At the best it works as the local
> umbrella for all kind of left-wing activities: So you have Stalinists,
> Maoists, Trotzkists of different flavours under one roof usually the level
> of cooperation is rather low. At the worst one local faction has kidnapped
> the whole PDS organisation and does not let anyonelse in. In the West the
> PDS is nothing impressive at all.
> > In Brandenburg this week the SPD decided to govern in alliance with the
> CDU
> > not the PDS. But it was openly debated and Regina Hildebrandt, the
> > prominent minister for work, publically disassociated herself from the
> > decision. Anti-communism seems to be on the retreat.
> Its really difficult to present the PDS as the 'communist' threat. The
case
> with Regine Hildebrandt was as follow: 1. Though the PDS was in
oppositions
> their MP were working closely together with the officials in Hildebrandts
> ministry. 2. The CDU attacked Regine Hildebrandt in an unfair way during
the
> election campaign.
> > In that Land, as in
> > Berlin which also has a grand coalition of CDU-SPD, the PDS now has the
> > advantage of being the main opposition party.
> >
> > Is the SPD shaken by these results?
> I think we will see some shock waves from North Rhine Westphalia result in
> the next days, but I am not sure in whats the dircetion will be. Either it
> could be a shift even more to the right and defending the budget cuts or
it
> could be an open left revolt. Personally I think the first option is most
> proable. But if the SPD looses the state elections in North Rhine
Westphalia
> next years things inside the SPD might change.
> > It is possible Schroeder is calculating
> > that economic unpopularity from cuts early in his term of office is
worth
> > bearing if in a couple of years time Germany has come out of its
downturn,
> > and he looks a sound guardian of the country's economy. Presumably he
> > thinks he can ride out discontent within the party.
> Thats are my thoughts as well. Schröder is calculating of commiting all
the
> cruelities in the beginning, loose all state elections (this has the side
> effect that no strong state governor can challenge him in his own camp)
and
> win federal elections in 2002, when people have forgot about his cuts or
> have get used to it.
> Johannes
>
>