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Dear Barkley and Carl,
<p>As my wife often remarks to me,<b> "Archie, what are you mumbling about
now?"</b>
<p>Your email pal,
<p>Tom L.
<p>"J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>James,
<br> This list used to have more discussion
of economics and finance, so
<br>much so that Doug was unhappy. So, then he started a thread/seminar
on the
<br>writings of Judith Butler, theorist of the lesbian phallus and other
<br>brilliant stuff. The result is what you see today...
<br>Barkley Rosser
<br>-----Original Message-----
<br>From: James Wilson <James_Wilson@ridley.on.ca>
<br>To: lbo-talk@lists.panix.com <lbo-talk@lists.panix.com>
<br>Cc: lbo-talk-digest@lists1.panix.com <lbo-talk-digest@lists1.panix.com>
<br>Date: Wednesday, February 24, 1999 2:58 PM
<br>Subject: Re: lbo-talk-digest V1 #1023
<p>>Dear LBO-talk participants,
<br>>
<br>>As a newbie who has just joined this listserve after reading Doug
<br>>Henwood's excellent book "Wall Street", I'm a bit surprised to find
that
<br>>it doesn't seem to involve much discussion of business or economic
issues
<br>>per se, and has drifted to topics\s as far afield as good/bad
television
<br>>programs and women's body images... all valid and interesting topics,
but
<br>>not quite what I had in mind after reading "Wall Street"...
<br>>
<br>>Rather than just bitch about it, I'm going to try to start the ball
<br>>rolling in a different direction...I'm posting a short article which
I
<br>>just wrote for my local ---ie, St. Catharines Ontario --- Unitarian
<br>>fellowship's newsletter. As president of that august body, one of
my
<br>>duties is to write a monthly column.
<br>>
<br>>I invite your comments- good,bad or ugly!
<br>>
<br>>Yours,
<br>>
<br>>James Wilson
<br>>
<br>>
<br>>****************
<br>>
<br>>My dear fellow Unitarians,
<br>>
<br>>I have been writing and re-writing the following column for the past
<br>>several months. Well, there’s no time like the present, so prudence
be
<br>>damned, here goes...
<br>>
<br>>As many of you know, I have become interested in economic issues over
the
<br>>past few years. My study of the financial system underpinning our
modern
<br>>world’s economic and political system has led me to become a thorough
<br>>non-believer in the beliefs and rituals of the new religion “Free
Market
<br>>Fundamentalism”. Examining carefully the dogma of our modern-day popes,
<br>>cardinals and priests (ie Wall Street bigshots, central bankers,
<br>>neo-liberal thinktanks, the IMF and World Bank, corporate CEO’s,
<br>>economists, paid-off politicians, etc. etc.) what we see is a fabric
of
<br>>half-truths and outright lies, chiefly useful for weaving into lovely
<br>>clothing to dress up the gods of greed and avarice.
<br>>
<br>>You have probably heard about the depression-style conditions the
<br>>Russians, Indonesians, Brazilians, Mexicans, and now many of
our Canadian
<br>>hog and grain farmers are now enduring. But somehow the worshippers
of the
<br>>Savage Market God have managed to evade all responsibility for what
<br>>radical University of Ottawa economist Michel Chossudovsky has called
“the
<br>>globalization of poverty”. Considerable resources have been used to
<br>>persuade us that prosperity for all lies just around the corner ---
or at
<br>>least, it might if only that damned government would stop meddling.
<br>>
<br>>Well, here we go off the deep end: I am going to make a rather dire
<br>>prediction: sometime in the year 1999, I believe that the Western
world
<br>>will finally reap what has been sown for the past ten or twenty years,
the
<br>>Crash of ’99 -- which will the 1929 stock market crash look
like a Sunday
<br>>school picnic. What the hell, I will even go so far as to predict
that
<br>>this will happen in October, traditional market mayhem season.
<br>>
<br>>How can I justify this dark apocalyptic vision? Has your president
gone
<br>>bonkers? Well, time will tell. But here is my reasoning.
<br>>
<br>>First of all, many of the world’s major debtor nations are reaching
the
<br>>point, after years of austerity, sacrifices and belt-tightening, where
<br>>they just won’t be able to stay on the debt treadmill any longer,
and will
<br>>simply have to default, just as Russia is in the process of doing.
This
<br>>will certainly wipe billions of dollars off of Wall Street. I’m thinking
<br>>here especially of Mexico, the world’s greatest debtor nation. (Remember
<br>>all the great things that NAFTA was supposedly going to do for Mexico?)
<br>>
<br>>Secondly, if you read John Kenneth Galbraith’s book “The Great
Crash”,
<br>>available at the public library, you’ll recognize a lot of today’s
events
<br>>-- but with one major difference. Hardly anyone in the twenties was
<br>>expecting a crash. Today, just about all the big shots, including
the head
<br>>of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, are plainly worried about one. They
<br>>don’t share these fears boldly with the general public, but if you
listen
<br>>closely, you will hear allusions to them sotto voce.
<br>>
<br>>Banks and other financial institutions have covertly acquired exclusive
<br>>title to create more and more money through lending and other mechanisms.
<br>>So, there are too many dollars (and other financial instruments) for
the
<br>>real goods and services available. The typical figures cited: $72
are
<br>>traded in the “financial” economy for every $1 used to buy and sell
real
<br>>goods and services. To watch the TV ads lately, you’d almost believe
that
<br>>mutual funds were the major national product of both Canada and the
United
<br>>States. What they really are is casino gambling having little or nothing
<br>>to do with investment in real goods or services.
<br>>
<br>>We in the developed world now have a “bubble economy” where the tacit
<br>>policy of both our large financial interests (ie, our unelected
<br>>government) and our elected government is keep that stock market going
<br>>ever higher. And what is making the stock market go ever higher?
<br>>Technological innovation? A rising worldwide standard of living? Better
<br>>health, education and housing? A higher price to earnings (P/E) ratio
for
<br>>stocks? No, no, no and no.
<br>>
<br>>Merger-mania, “downsizing”, systematic, planned wipeout of the currencies
<br>>of many of the world’s smaller nations, global piratization of public
<br>>assets. Like a cancerous growth upon a healthy organism, the casino
<br>>economy is growing at a tremendous rate while sucking away at the
<br>>lifeblood of its host, the productive “real” economy .
<br>>
<br>>For example, a recent study by the Vanier Institute of the Family
show
<br>>that ordinary Canadians are facing record debt (“Right now, families
are
<br>>not saving one red cent”) with real family incomes virtually flat
since
<br>>1980. Two spouses now typically work to make the same salary that
one used
<br>>to bring in.
<br>>
<br>>If and when there’s a sudden loss of confidence, then all the players
will
<br>>rush to cash in their chips at the same time to purchase real goods
and
<br>>services. As if 72 people all tried to sit down in the same chair.
<br>>
<br>>If my prediction is right, we are now living in the last days of Pompeii.
<br>>What does one do in such circumstances? Well, you try to cash in your
<br>>chips before the high rollers do; withdraw all your money from the
bank,
<br>>perhaps converting it into U.S. dollars or gold, and then bury it
in a jar
<br>>and wait.
<br>>
<br>>Time will tell, and you’ll soon have the chance to either deride Wilson
as
<br>>a dangerous crank, or praise his foresight and rue the fact that you
did
<br>>not follow his wise advice.
<br>>
<br>>
<br>>James Wilson
<br>>
<br>></blockquote>
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