Bears & Crashes

John Gulick jlgulick at sfo.com
Wed Apr 5 16:57:47 PDT 2000



>Please remind me why we've all been so eagerly awaiting a stock market
>crash. How exactly will this benefit the people of the world?


>From my perch here in Santa Cruz County, on the periphery (but very much
a part of) Silicon Valley, that's a real toughie. The diagnosis, I think, must begin w/an acknowledgement of the combined/uneven nature of capitalist development -- sectorally and regionally.

On the one hand, b/c of info-tech (and especially but not exclusively dot-com) hyper-accumulation in the area, Bay Area labor markets are really tight. In some respects, a "rising tide lifts all boats" -- for example, local convalescent centers can't find willing and able labor-power for 8 bucks an hour anymore. A cooling off in info-tech capitalization occasioned by stock price drops would probably mean layoffs and bankruptcies in IT firms and a slackening in regional labor markets -- so even those who are not dweebs working for Yahoo! and EBay and Oracle would lose bargaining power and the capacity to command wage and benefit demands from employers (and change in the pocket also provides a cushion for broader political mobilization, as others have remarked).

On the other hand, those in the area not tied into the IT loop (not only those who don't have stock options -- which have produced in the tens of thousands of millionaires locally -- but also, critically, those who rent chicken coops for $1500 a month), have probably seen their quantitative standard of living decline, w/so much hyper-inflation of physically immobile assets (again, land= real estate=rental housing). Not to mention the ecological and cultural pollution engendered by dot-com ostentation -- nightmarish traffic, runaway boutique and shopping mall construction, and gory displays of nouveau riche wealth-flaunting (like convoys of luxury convertibles cruising up and down the gorgeous Highway One on weekends).


>From my regionalist perspective, the orthodox Marxist in me informs me that the
crash would be bad for possibilities of progressive social change, while the ecological Marxist in me savors the prospect of a temporary stay to info-tech capitalist triumphalism. The trade-off between rising nominal incomes and plummeting quality of life (including the speed-up of anything and everything via celullar phone, Palm Pilots, and 60-hour work weeks) -- especially for those outside the IT loop -- is so murky that I wouldn't mind it if there was less regional demand for caterers, dog-walkers, and Mercedes salespeople.

John Gulick



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