The China Syndrome - currency questions

D.L. boddhisatva at mindspring.com
Fri Apr 7 18:01:12 PDT 2000


C. Rakesh,

Here I thought I disagreed with you so I got all polemical.

I absolutely agree with the reasoning behind your position. You've laid it out very nicely here. I see why you wanted me to get specific. The question seems to be for both of us how (in lieu of a real socialist revolution) capitalism can best go forward with its civilizing mission.

I still tend to view PMFN and WTO admittance for China as the last straw but let's break the question down to issues:

Currency: If currency represents the value of legal relationships within the issuing system, then the currency argument favors your position. The current system of hedging is completely necessary since there is no continuity across legal systems. WTO and the like seem to move capitalism towards legal continuity. As much as the euro has been a crippled first child of the movement towards global currency, it still has extraordinary potential. Currency seems a good argument for bringing China in from the cold.

Here's my concern: If the WTO subjugates its mission (globalization of bourgeois-democratic capitalism) by having weak standards for entry and if the rush to get China into the organization undermines other attempts to civilize its legal system (pressure at MFN hearing time), the cart seems well before the horse. This may not be fatal in and of itself but add the symbolic capitulation of ideals to convenience. With so many other defeats already, is it surprising the left should balk at this one?

My specific currency concern is the yuan's isolation from any kind of reasonable global valuation. Is it smart for global capitalism to add a huge new pool of almost arbitrarily valued currency to the pot? Are we heading for a peso disaster to the third power? China has already threatened yuan devaluation several times. Do we need that with the come-backs in the won and yen based on very incomplete reform? What happens to currency values if the US's now number-one trade-imbalance partner (China) suddenly devalues its currency? I don't know. Maybe a stronger direct yuan-dollar relationship would cushion the blow to other Asian currencies or maybe it would spread the contagion faster.

What do you think?

peace



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