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Dennis R Redmond dredmond at oregon.uoregon.edu
Sat Apr 15 01:44:09 PDT 2000


On Fri, 14 Apr 2000, / dave / wrote:


> How about this: any listers willing to sketch out a possible scenario or
> two for the next 60 days if the markets a) don't recover next week or b)
> head even furthur south?

If the Bubble is bursting, the real effects are going to show up elsewhere, in the credit system of which the Bubble is merely a, as it were, Zizekian symptom. I'd expect a massive run on the US dollar, followed by an implosion in the US credit infrastructure, as the 300 billion EUR annual inflow of foreign capital fueling the economy slows to a halt, followed by a nasty structural-adjustment-style recession.

But keep in mind that monetary and fiscal policy in Japan and the EU are still pretty stimulative, which means that the damage will be limited. It's a great time to buy euro, actually.

-- Dennis



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