Bubble Mystery Solved!

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Apr 20 15:38:32 PDT 2000

dave wrote:

>So here we have it - the Ultimate Answer to the problem of "whence
>cometh the bubble?" -

Wow. This idiot seems unaware of research showing that women outperform men in stock trading, because men are overconfident and trade too much <http://www.gsm.ucdavis.edu/~odean/papers/gender/gender.html>:

>Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
>Brad Barber and Terrance Odean
>Theoretical models of financial markets built on the assumption that
>some investors are overconfident yield one central prediction:
>overconfident investors will trade too much. We test this prediction
>by partitioning investors on the basis of a variable that provides a
>natural proxy for overconfidence - gender. Psychological research
>has established that men are more prone to overconfidence than
>women. Thus, models of investor overconfidence predict that men will
>trade more and perform worse than women. Using account data for over
>35,000 households from a large discount brokerage firm, we analyze
>the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991
>through January 1997. Consistent with the predictions of the
>overconfidence models, we document that men trade 45 percent more
>than women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 1.4
>percent less than those earned by women. These differences are more
>pronounced between single men and single women; single men trade 67
>percent more than single women and earn annual risk-adjusted net
>returns that are 2.3 percent less than those earned by single women.

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