Doug and Max a week ago predicted that Gore will win the election. I wish they were right, but unfortunately, I think they are wrong. I was buying the economic fundamentals line - ie. incumbent parties win when the economy is doing so well - but the reality is that enough folks have come to believe in the "new economy" rhetoric of endless prosperity that they don't worry about it being endangered by the "wrong" candidate. Clinton fatigue is very real and Bush has positioned himself as the candidate to pursue Clinton's policies while being a different person - and with a nice sounding conservative spin. Change, but not really change.
And Gore has remained the same lousy speaker and uncharismatic guy a lot of folks worried about. Given the fact that the media and a lot of other folks - including Nader and folks on this list - have kept saying there aren't important enough differences between the candidates, voters will choose the candidate they like over the one they don't if the issue differences don't grab them.
Probably most important, the GOP folks want to win, from the moderates to the rightwing nuts, while a lot of traditional Dem voters aren't as convinced the election will matter. So GOP turnout and activism will probably be more successful or at least successful enough. Gore and Clinton are to blame for stupid trade policies that alienated the base but that lack of activism will be the reality that will probably put W in office in the fall.
So we'll have a chance to see if the Left does better with a GOP President in office so we can concentrate our opposition. Hope it works as well as folks predict.
Any counter bets/predictions?
-- Nathan Newman