American election bets

Daniel Davies d_squared_2002 at
Tue Aug 15 08:18:53 PDT 2000

Nil desperandum, democrats. The sporting gents putting up actual bunce have it too close to call.

Latest quotes from the Iowa Electronic Markets popular vote share:

Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DemVS 0.486 0.493 0.485 0.485 0.486 0.485 ReformVS 0.023 0.030 0.020 --- --- --- RepVS 0.480 0.493 0.480 --- --- ---

Meanwhile, IG Index has W slightly ahead, by just about a spread. Based on the unlikelihood of the electoral college going the opposite way from the popular vote, and the tendency to produce much bigger majorities, I'd say that there's an arbitrage here, but I'm not sure that either IG or Iowa has the option-like instruments you'd need to put it on.


U.S Presidential Election

How Many States Will They Win In The Us Presidential Election ?

Market Current Quote

Al Gore (Dem) 22.5 - 24.5

George W. Bush (Rep) 26 - 28

John Mccain 0 - 1

Ralph Nader 0 - 1 Scheduled For Nov 2000 Others On Request Maximum 51 (District Of Columbia Counts)

(this may not work due to their mad frames/javascript structure)


errrm .... illegal where illegal. Nothing I say should be taken as any sort of advice whatever.


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