Latest quotes from the Iowa Electronic Markets popular vote share:
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DemVS 0.486 0.493 0.485 0.485 0.486 0.485 ReformVS 0.023 0.030 0.020 --- --- --- RepVS 0.480 0.493 0.480 --- --- ---
Meanwhile, IG Index has W slightly ahead, by just about a spread. Based on the unlikelihood of the electoral college going the opposite way from the popular vote, and the tendency to produce much bigger majorities, I'd say that there's an arbitrage here, but I'm not sure that either IG or Iowa has the option-like instruments you'd need to put it on.
U.S Presidential Election
How Many States Will They Win In The Us Presidential Election ?
Market Current Quote
Al Gore (Dem) 22.5 - 24.5
George W. Bush (Rep) 26 - 28
John Mccain 0 - 1
Ralph Nader 0 - 1 Scheduled For Nov 2000 Others On Request Maximum 51 (District Of Columbia Counts)
errrm .... illegal where illegal. Nothing I say should be taken as any sort of advice whatever.
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