Laying Bets: W Will Win

Doug Henwood dhenwood at
Wed Aug 16 06:09:39 PDT 2000

Rob Schaap wrote:

>These polls don't mean jack-shit, do they? A day after Dubya's non-speech,
>he was riding seventeen points clear. By the beginning of this convention
>the gap was about eleven.

The American Association of Public Opinion Research list is discussing a piece that appeared in the Wash Post the other day by the paper's polling director. His argument was that the polling industry is using extremely small samples (ca. 500 people) to generate quick overnight polls, with extremely unreliable and volatile results. A lot of the movement from day-to-day is just statistical noise that gets interpreted as trend shifts.

Polls at this stage of the game are fairly meaningless anyway.

Yours in boring irrelevance,


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