Economists: Relax, This Won't Hurt a Bit
Most of us like recession speculation about as much as we like tetanus shots. A business forecast from UCLA brought out the big needle on Monday and predicted a 60 percent chance of the r-word in 2001. Like your doctor, the UCLA economists said it would only pinch a little, and then it would all be over.
CBS MarketWatch, Newsbytes and MSNBC provided good summaries of the report, which insisted everything would be peachy again in 2002. Newsbytes' Michael Bartlett led with some encouragement for deflated techie egos: "The stimulus of the Internet-led 'New Economy' was enough to keep the current economic expansion in the United States driving forward for four years longer than it might have," he said, paraphrasing the report. Funny how everyone's putting "new economy" in quotes these days - it used to seem so real.
The San Jose Mercury News called the predicted downturn "recession lite" and noted that local California readers "will escape the worst of it." (A separate UCLA report on California put the odds of a statewide recession at 40 percent; report author Tom Lieser prefers the term "deceleration.") Many experts expect 3 percent growth next year, so the Merc's Jennifer Bjorhus called other economist to compare notes. One Bay Area econ professor agreed that we may be in trouble, but the UCLA report "has other economists scratching their heads," said Bjorhus. "I don't know of anybody else that's out there that far," said economist Richard Carlson.
We do. CBS MarketWatch columnist Paul Farrell wondered if the slump has already arrived, citing Ken Kurson's article "Nine Signs We're Already in a Recession" in Esquire's December issue. Kurson's thesis made sense and "was worth the price of the magazine," but in the end, Farrell shrugged it off. "Neither Esquire's Grinch nor the U.S. Supreme Court is going to steal my Christmas," he wrote. If only we could face the doctor with such self-assurance. - Jen Muehlbauer
UCLA Report's Economic Forecast: Recession Lite http://tm0.com/thestandard/sbct.cgi?s=64392849&i=284481&d=730130
UCLA's Anderson School Predicts 'Mild Recession' in 2001 http://tm0.com/thestandard/sbct.cgi?s=64392849&i=284481&d=730131
UCLA Economists See U.S. Recession http://tm0.com/thestandard/sbct.cgi?s=64392849&i=284481&d=730132
U.S. Recession Looming, Study Says http://tm0.com/thestandard/sbct.cgi?s=64392849&i=284481&d=730133
Recession in 2001? It's Already Here! http://tm0.com/thestandard/sbct.cgi?s=64392849&i=284481&d=730134
Nine Signs We're Already in a Recession Esquire (Not available online.)