hardening landing

John Gulick jlgulick at sfo.com
Thu Dec 21 13:57:40 PST 2000


CR forwarded:


>[From today's NY Times – "Market Paying Price for Valuing New-Economy Hope
>Over Profits" by Alex Berenson. Full text:
>http://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/21/business/21MARK.html?pagewanted=all]


>... [S]ince September, the boom [in Internet-infrastructure-related stocks]
>has turned into the deepest bear market for technology stocks in a
>generation, as investors worry about the prospects for continued growth. ...

I sez:

Not too much chit-chat about this on LBO lately. As Henwood would insist, forecasting recession is an art, not a science (or perhaps more akin to divining entrails), but I'm curious, what are LBO-listers' speculations and projections ? What with the global economy being propped up by U.S. consumer spending, now certain to nosedive as on-line shoppers can no longer use their stock portfolios as collateral for their credit card accounts, and the likely plunge of the dollar as the out-of-whack U.S. balance of payments-to-GDP ratio too must "correct" itself sooner or later, I can't help but thinking the next recession will be a _big-time_ purgative devaluation of values. Well, at least the rolling brownouts here in CA will come to an end, so we can while away our free time on our PC's trying to buy up bargain-basement machine tools and feedstock chemicals ...

John Gulick



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