Novaya Gazeta January 24, 2000 We Don't Talk To Terrorists. But We Help Them? A version of apartment explosions in Russia By Boris Kagarlitsky [translation by Olga Kryazheva, research intern, Center for Defense Information, Washington DC]
Instead of a Foreword
Life requires political fiction. Here is a story of this kind, where all the events and names are false, and life is not. For some reason everything in the story corresponds with real life. Surprisingly, only the worst presentiments come true.
Anyway, here is the story. And don't take it as some instruction for action. Take it as something to think about, who we are and what we are. We are used to living by our instincts, by basic instincts.
Division of Humanitarian Problems
I never was a fan of mystery. I hate to solve puzzles. But everything that has been happening in our country for the past few months reminds me of a regular mystery plot. It does not matter whether you wanted or not, you have to think. From the brief information in the newspapers, from reservations and omissions, a certain picture can be put together. Strange questions about Moscow explosions, leakage of information from the special forces, the contradictions in official information, all of the above form certain questions.
We figured out much, but not everything. It is clear that the war in Chechnya began as agreed; it is clear that commanders on Chechen fields were abandoned; nobody agreed on war with bloody bombings. Generally speaking, it is clear that apartment explosions in Moscow would not have happened if somebody in the Russian political elite did not want them.
But there is more. Pieces of information were leaking through the Versiya newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, London's Independent newspaper, magazine Profile, and the Internet. One by one pieces of puzzle were put together. But there were a few details that were lacking. They began to clear in January, when Zhirinovsky and Chubais finally broke up. And at the same time, some of the participants started to tell their version of events.
Meeting at the Azure Seashore
Back in summer in the Versiya newspaper there was an article about the meeting of Voloshin with Basayev in France. This did not happen in Paris, as some of the newspapers reported later, but on the villa of Adnan Khashoggi, Arabic millionaire, on the Mediterranean. This villa was under the supervision of the French intelligence services, which noticed some unusual actions there. Russiagate had begun and French intelligence organized the leakage of information. When this information appeared in the newspapers, Khashoggi stated that he was being groundlessly accused and he was not even on the villa during the negotiations. But the main participants of the negotiations remained silent.
Anton Surikov, the former member of army special forces (if there are former members among them), who earlier had supervised brothers Basayev in Abkhazia, met Voloshin in France. During Primakov's time, Surikov worked in the staff of RF government. Despite this fact, he developed regular work relations with Voloshin's people. When some of the foreign reporters tried to ask Surikov about the meeting on the Azure seashore, Surikov ironically noted that he had never been abroad, especially in France. This seemed strange because a few months prior the country could see him in Washington, DC in the company of Maslukov and Camdessus. Also, he visited France at least twice: first time in December of 1994, and second in summer of 1999. He left on June 23 on the Aeroflot flight to go to Paris, and came back from Nice on July 21, a month later.
At that time the contacts of the resigned government official Surikov with the head of the president's administration did not matter. What mattered was his experience of working with brothers Basayev, not only with Shamil, but also with his brother Shirvani. By the time Surikov got to Abkhazia Shamil has already had some experience of working with Main Investigative Services (GRU). Shirvani was just starting to work there. Old connections still existed, and the trust remained, despite all the complications of Chechen conflict. That is why when people from Kremlin needed somebody they could trust they easily found such an individual.
The head of the president's administration had a very urgent business he had to discuss with the head of Chechen forces. The villa was completely secured from bugs. The security was so thorough, that people in the surroundings started to have problems with their cellular phones. But the members of the meeting did not know about one of the details in the security system. It blocked the hearing on the outside, but it provided the perfect hearing from the inside.
Voloshin was concerned about the situation in Russia and succession of power problem. Luzhkov seemed to be a threat, and his alliance with Primakov was already a decided matter. They had to be stopped, and there was only one way to stop them. The political situation and rules of the game had to be completely changed. In order to do this the conflict with external enemy was needed. Basayev was also interested in power in Chechnya, not Russia. With the regular development of events the influence of the legal president Maskhadov was growing. A small war or crisis could change it. In this matter, the final word belonged to the field commanders, such as Basayev. But the war had to remain small, otherwise Chechnya would need something like a real and big army, and Maskhadov would be in charge of it. In other words, a small war, a border conflict, a big performance with a firework or a hide-and-seek game was needed, and why not? They generally agreed on the plan.
It starts with a small conflict in Botlikhsky region. Then Basayev, taking over the Novolaksky region, attacks Khasavyurt with the support of the Karamakhinsky "beardmen." Robing Khasavyurt, Basayev's squadron attacks Kirzyatsk Hydroelectric Station, organizes a small sabotage there, and heads to Mozdok afterwards. Then Russian Army has to start the military activity, and by fights dislodge Basayev's squadron from Russia, and enter Chechnya. All this is supposed to take long time, so the country can follow the military reports about liberating of the territory (a propagandist plot, which was later used in Chechnya.) During that time the Prime Minister will be replaced in Moscow and the power will be given to General Lebed. He will be an acting president by December. By the end of this campaign the Army will heroically occupy Nadrechny region, get over Sunzhensky Range, and stop. If needed, the troops will take over Gudermes as agreed with brothers Yamadayev by spring.
The Grozny storm was not planned. The comedy could be over in spring. The parties had not decided how to conclude this story, but they did not really care about it: " We'll think of something, when power is ours."
Months after maneuvers, marches, and contramarches, attacks and special operations, both sides will announce themselves as the winners. Russians triumphantly get rid of Chechens on their territory, and Chechens will not let the enemy in the middle of Chechnya, and they will sign a declaration of peace. Basayev will be rewarded for his merits. First, attacks on Khasavyurt and Mozdok will bring him some good results. Second, he could be rewarded by Saudis (if needed, the Jordanian Khattab, who closely cooperates with Saudi Special Forces, will help) for fighting the enemy.
The parties had departed pleased with each other. Everything looked spectacular. But they have not thought of just one detail, which happened to be fatal. Along with Voloshin other people participated in implementing of the plan in Russia. It is not a secret that Berezovsky favors Voloshin. Unfortunately, Boris Abramovich could not operate alone in this operation. In order for political and military mechanism to work he had to include other players in the game, such as Roman Abramovich, Anatoly Chubais, and mainly General Anatoly Kvashnin, the Chief of General Staff. All of them had a common interest with Berezovsky: to keep Luzhkov and Primakov away from power. But they also had their own interests. And so, being part of the plan, they started their own game.
We thought that conflict between Chubais and Berezovsky started in December, after they could not divide fruits of the victory on the parliamentary elections. That was not the case, the fight began long before. Chubais was not satisfied with Berezovsky's choice of successor. General Lebed was too close to the Moscow oligarch. Chubais was looking for another individual, more dependent, and more familiar, for example, Vladimir Putin. Putin was also forceful, but from a different team; he did not have his own political and administrative staff, therefore was very dependent on Chubais' team.
In order to take leadership in his hands, Chubais had to break the original scenario and replace it with his own. At this point Kvashnin's and Chubais' interests met. For the Chief of General Staff the small war was good, but the big war was even better. He could use real military tactic, all kinds of troops, and conduct grand scale battles.
The Voloshin plan was being destroyed. But the participants did not know about it.
The War is On the Way. Let It Go!
So, on one hand we have brothers Basayev, Voloshin, and Berezovsky, and on the other Chubais, Kvashnin, and Abramovich, who had joined them. GRU is somewhere in between. In August everything was going according to the plan. The regiment of internal forces, which secured the border with Chechnya, was withdrawn from Dagestan, as local people demanded so. Frontier guards had left. Chechens easily crossed the border. Having disturbed Botlikhsky region, Basayev moved to Novolaksky, where he met some obstacles. Not only the roads to Khasavurt were closed by troops, but Karamakhi was blocked also. This was not a part of the plan. Basayev was mad. Anton Surikov had to go to Dagestan to resolve the problem. Despite that war was everywhere, the meeting went relatively quite. Basayev calmed down, but he did not know the whole truth at the time.
General Kvashnin fights very good when he knows enemy plans. The operation in Dagestan went excellent, but he did not manage to stretch the war. At this point of time new events that were not agreed on started to happen.
Kvashnin and Chubais had an advantage of not being bound by personal agreements with brothers Basayev. They had not known them as long as Berezovsky, they did not participate in the same operations with them, as Kvashnin did, and did not shake hands with them, as Voloshin did. Kvashnin and Chubais were in business with them, but they were not bound by any obligation.
Chubais changed the plan. Stepashin was fired, but instead of Lebed Putin was appointed on the post of Prime Minister. This turn of events was unexpected for Berezovsky and Lebed. In the middle of crisis, Lebed flew from Krasnoyarsk and stayed in Moscow for few days waiting for an appointment. Unfortunately, while Berezovsky and Lebed tried to resolve the current situation, Chubais, Abramovich, and Kvashnin had already picked a different successor for Yeltsin.
The new Prime Minister needed a new war, his own war. Unlike Lebed he did not have a reputation, and he wanted to create it in no time. Along with instability on the borders he needed a new terrible threat, which could unite the country around the new leader. Terrorism seemed to fit.
During the January battles in Grozny Independent, the London newspaper, published an article, which Western readers found sensational. GRU officer Alexy Galtin was trapped by Chechens and testified that GRU was involved to the explosions of apartments in Moscow. GRU officials stated immediately that these accusations were "provocation, nonsense, garbage." To tell the truth, GRU did not argue the fact either of Alexy Galtin's existence or his entrapment by Chechens. This seemed strange. Nobody asked how Chechens trapped and identifies the GRU officer. After all, he was not the commander of Army Special Forces.
Apparently, it was easy for brothers Basayev to find the GRU officer. They have been having serious problems with their management colleagues. Shamil had already been accused in the apartment explosions. But he fiercely denied the accusation and was absolutely right. Shamil was not involved in this terrorist action. However, Basayev helped. But it was a different Basayev.
Basayev II
Shamil Basayev is not only a GRU staff member with a tremendous work experience, but also a Chechen politician, capable of playing his own political games. His brother, Shirvani, is different. In GRU opinion, he is easily influenced. When the original plan was failing, the decisions were being made as an urgent matter. Shirvani was not well informed, and there was no time to check with his brother on every small detail.
The terrorists to execute explosions in Moscow were picked from the Shirvani Basayev staff. Nobody asked Shamil, and Shirvani did not know he was used. It is clear that the terrorist would never explode anything in Moscow on their own. They did not even have a clearly formulated task: everybody was responsible for their own part of the deal, but they did not know what was going on. Clearly, it is hard to hold a difficult operation like this without effective cover. It was a task for people from GRU system, to which brothers Basayev belonged.
The most mysterious question about Moscow explosions is "How did brothers Basayev bring explosives to Moscow?" Nobody could give a convincing answer. But nobody brought the explosives to Moscow. Special forces had their own supplies, which were used in this operation. Both explosions occurred in the southern part of the city, and that was not an accident. The city is divided into sectors. The group from one sector was used in that part of the town. Next time, when somebody needs to explode something, we will hear the thunder in another part of the city. The group that was used as a cover apparently is not the last and only one.
This catastrophe took our attention from some other problems for some time. Chubais and Kvashin could have celebrated the victory. Everything looked like a good detective story. It was a zero-sum game. On one hand, all the goals were reached, on the other, all suspicions led to Berezovsky and his people, who had already been seen with Chechen fighters. Berezovsky had to make excuses, but nobody believed him. Shamil Basayev protested, but people had already labeled him as a devil and a murderer of sleeping babies. Shirvani had to keep silence. And during this time Chubais and Kvashnin could quietly play their game. They were not involved into an open conflict with Berezovsky. They continued to have a common interest in fighting against Luzhkov and Primakov. Therefore they had to support each other.
Surprisingly, after the Moscow explosions Russian officials immediately blamed Basayev and Khattab, and nobody even mentioned Shirvani. Nobody had brought his name up or requested his extradition. As for Berezovsky, all close to him reporters started to support their boss immediately, proving that Boris Abramovich was not a murderer, no matter what we thought of him. Press hostile to Berezovsky insisted that Berezovsky was a murderer. Evidently, such polemics pleased Chubais greatly. No, Boris Abramovich had not request explosions in the apartments. He had requested a war.
Blood For Blood
So, the field had opened for Kvashnin and supporting generals. By the way, there are many generals in the Army, but not all of them are as close to the Chief of General Staff, as General Shamanov, the new Hero of Russia. Big war brings big awards. Marshal Sergeyev and his strategic rockets are nothing in comparison to infantry regiments.
It feels so wonderful to fight, when there is no enemy! According to the previous agreements, the Chechen troops were pulling out of the northern regions. Shamil Basayev realized that the previous agreement had failed, but he was still able to act according to the old scenario. More so, this preliminary plan of withdrawal corresponds with strategic plans of Chechen Chief of Staff Maskhadov.
Moscow explosions turned out to be a catastrophe for Basayev. The national hero turned out not only into a mercenary, but also into a person who can be easily fooled. More importantly, his chances for political leadership dropped down to zero. At this point the war was not possible without Maskhadov. Chechens remembered that campaign, which ended with thousands of dead peaceful citizens, bloody bombings, and distractions of the whole towns, started with an awkward Dagestan mission, which brought hardly any benefit.
Shamil Basayev starts a real war. But what had happened in the minds of the generals? How could Kvashnin sincerely believe in his own victory knowing its real reason? Or maybe it was not possible to stop the war machine, and the Chechen campaign promised some big conquests. They probably decided that if they could fool Chechens, they should be able to destroy them.
This did not work out. The war has been dragging on for several months, and is nowhere near the end. More so, the chances to renew the negotiations and for "honorable peace," convenient for both sides, are minimal. The popularity of Putin, who was brought to power as an acting president, is decreasing, as the situation on fronts promises nothing. At the same time the confrontation between Chubais and Berezovsky turns from secret to public.
Both Chechen fighters and GRU staff appeared to be involved in an affair they did not plan. Both felt deeply insulted. This brought all kinds of rumors into the mass media. Agents don't trust their bosses; soldiers don't trust their generals. Power structures, involved into a secret struggle for power, are losing an ability to execute their main function: to protect state interests.
Time of Conspiracy
The story of the Dagestan provocation reminds one of the classic mysteries with a bad ending. The analysis of a political process leads one to the covert affairs studies, which generally do not relate to politics. It is always tempting to explain the current history events with the help of "a conspiracy theory." Unfortunately, conspiracy is a part of our political life, a result of the closed power system, built by our political elite. Conspiracy also results in crisis. History is full of conspiracies, but most of them fail. Most importantly, they usually lead to completely different unplanned results. Our political elite can not rule by regular means, but they don't want to give up power. Therefore, they create conspiracies, one worse than another. Behind-the-curtain intrigues end in bloodshed. In reality, while some create conspiracies, others pay for them with their blood.