bull market reasoning (corrected)

Michael Perelman michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Tue Feb 22 06:54:42 PST 2000


Rakesh, don't the Japanese companies excel in the production of small logic chips that work in non-computer consumer goods?

Rakesh Bhandari wrote:


> >Oh, really?
>
> Yes, really, Dennis. Profitability in the highly commodified DRAM business
> in which Japanese companies are still concentrated has been quite weak (and
> Taiwan is set to bring on massive new capacity in the next few years):
> Hitachi and NEC were posting massive losses last year (remember the WSJ
> 6/10/99 article I downloaded or the Mowery analysis from California
> Management Review Fall 1998 excerpts from which I dowloaded as well?) It's
> not semiconductors or growth in the abstract that matters. It's
> profitability. And that's what US companies have enjoyed by concentrating
> on logic and microcomponent products as well as innovative device
> designs--and here US companies have little competition. Indeed it's a
> picture of uncompromised hegemony where it counts. See also Langlois'
> analysis in the Mowery and Nelson book on Industrial Leadership.
>
> Yours, Rakesh
>
> ps you have not responded either to Robert Eisner's deflationary critique
> of fears of the US' debtor status.

-- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu



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