Mandela pushes hard but Burundi peace far off
By Simon Denyer
NAIROBI: Nelson Mandela may be wheeling out the big guns in an effort to
bring peace to Burundi, but an end to the central African country's long
civil war still seems a distant prospect.
The former South African president will bring his successor Thabo Mbeki to
the next round of Burundi peace talks in Tanzania on Monday, while Bill
Clinton and French President Jacques Chirac will also address the talks by
videolink.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, Tanzania's Benjamin Mkapa, Mozambique's
Joaquim Chissano and Burundi's President Pierre Buyoya will also attend in
the town of Arusha.
Mandela's approach as the new mediator has brought Burundi's brutal civil
war out of obscurity, and his dynamism and charm have given new impetus to
the long-stalled negotiations.
His team are already talking about pushing through a peace deal in the
coming weeks, but regional experts say a deal will be tough to attain and
nearly impossible to implement.
Fighting is still raging in the Burundian countryside, with fresh reports of
massacres by the Tutsi-dominated army or ethnic Hutu rebels emerging on a
regular basis, while the main armed rebel groups are unlikely even to attend
this round of talks.
But perhaps most important of all, the continuation of war in the
neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo makes sustainable peace in
tiny Burundi a near impossibility.
CEASEFIRE CRUCIAL
Burundi, with an ethnic mix similar to neighbouring Rwanda, has been ruled
by military men from the Tutsi minority most years since independence in
1962. A civil war with Hutu rebels has cost 200,000 lives in the last six
years.
The main obstacles to a deal between the political parties represented in
Arusha include agreement on integrating Hutu rebels into the army, and who
would rule the country in the period running up to democratic elections.
Compromise on these key issues will be much tougher while the killing
continues.
"The ongoing violence of the war is polarising the parties -- every time a
killing takes place, the trust you are building up evaporates," said Jan Van
Eck of South Africa's Centre for Conflict Resolution.
The armed rebel groups themselves, principle among them the Forces for the
Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), are unlikely to be represented when talks
begin in Arusha on Monday.
CNDD-FDD spokesman Jerome Ndiho says his group is still waiting for an
official written invitation to Arusha. In any case, their main demand is for
direct talks with the government.
Without the rebels' involvement, a peace deal will not bring an end to the
war.
Nor will it be easy for President Buyoya to convince nervous Tutsis from his
entourage to implement any agreement to relinquish power which they see as
foisted on them by an impatient international community.
Chaos in the Congo is another obstacle. FDD rebels have received arms and
training from Zimbabwe and are seen by Congolese President Laurent Kabila as
an important bulwark against Rwandan, Burundian and Ugandan aggression.
A Congolese peace deal signed in Lusaka last year has failed to stop the
fighting.
Even if FDD's leaders could be talked into signing a peace deal, it is far
from certain that their forces on the ground would lay down their arms,
especially if they get foreign encouragement. (Reuters)
For reprint rights: Times Syndication Service
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