Although Koch, president of the CDU in Hesse has hung onto power despite admitting to lying twice but the national head of the CDU, and succesor to Kohl, Schaeuble has resigned. The party has had a fine of 40 million DM imposed on it by the SPD head of the Bundestag, Thierse, who originally came from the Civic Movement in the East. This is equivalent to half its total annual campaigning budget.
In the autumn the SPD was suffering severe losses to the CDU in various Laender elections, and the PDS was doing well. The FDP was in danger of being marginalised under the 5% hurdle.
Until two months ago it was assumed that Schleswig Holstein would also be lost, as the Red Green ruling coalition had a lead of only a few percent from 1996. At that stage the CDU was well over 40% in national polls. By comparison it appears to have lost about 10% in two months although it has largely held its own compared to the 1996 result.
SPD 43.1% (up 3.3%) CDU 35.2 (down 2.0%). The Greens had feared dropping below 5% but lost only 1.9% scoring 6.2%. The FDP, contrary to the position in the autumn, gained by about the amount the CDU lost and came in third at 7.6%.
The PDS claimed to have made a step towards being a national party, in the West as well as the East, with 1.4% of the votes. Its spokesperson insisted it had a national role as a party of socialism and social justice.
Since the CDU financing scandal national opinion polls have shown a drop in the proportion of the population greatly trusting German democracy from 65% in 1998 to 30% in 2000. Those merely "trusting" German democracy rose from 27% to 52%.
Although this drop of confidence hit the SPD as well, it appears in S-H that its vote held up and there were few protest votes for the PDS.
The CDU leadership claims it has now stabilised its position. That might be so for candidates for the new leading post like Merkel and Ruhe, but there is room for continued drip of bad publicity. Der Spiegel has an article these weekend that Koch misled his regional party on many more than two occasions. Furthermore the identity of Kohl's secret donors has still to be uncovered.
Greater restrictions on the ability of capital to buy votes are to be welcomed even at the expense of consolidating the SPD. It is a common theme in many countries.
I hope Johannes will bear with this sketch and help with his own observations. I think it is important we take what opportunities there are to widen the focus of lists like these beyond the USA.
Chris Burford
London