hate crimes weirdness

DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com
Mon Feb 28 23:58:40 PST 2000



> Blacks are twice as likely as
>whites to be charged with a "hate crime." According to data from a
National
>Crime Victimization Survey, published by the US Department of Justice,
only
>2,336 whites were charged with anti-black "hate" crimes in 1997, while 718
>blacks were charged with anti-white crimes. Adjusting for the fact that
>blacks make up just 13% of the population, they were statistically twice
as
>likely as whites to face prosecution for hate crimes.

This is a junk statistic. One just can't go from the numbers presented to "blacks are statistically twice as likely as whites to face prosecution for hate crimes".

To illustrate with an example, pretend that you have an island with 100 black people and 100 white people, and that 10 of each are convicted of hate crimes in a year. The conviction rates are equal at 10%.

Now, consolidate the population of a neighbouring island which only has 100 white people on it. None of the 100 white people on this island are convicted of hate crimes, because there are no black people on it. The conviction rate of whites is now 5% and blacks are miraculously "statistically twice as likely" to be prosecuted.

Given that the actual situation in the US is quite like the one described -- there are far more white people who never meet a black person than black people who never meet a white person -- I don't think that this analysis of conviction rates is meaningful. The statistics at a district level might be, though, but I suspect they may not give the politically convenient implication that black people are twice as violent as whites.

d^2

LIBERTARIAN PARTY http://www.lp.org/

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