"A Portrait of the Artist as a Young, Middle-Aged, and Elderly
Man"
BY: LONES SMITH
University of Michigan
GEOFFREY R. LANYON
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Division of Monetary Affairs
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Date: September 16, 1999
Contact: LONES SMITH
Email: Mailto:econ-theorist at earthling.net
Postal: University of Michigan
611 S. Tappan
Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
Phone: 734-764-2357
Fax: 734-764-2769
Co-Auth: GEOFFREY R. LANYON
Email: Mailto:geoffrey.r.lanyon at frb.gov
Postal: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Division of Monetary Affairs
21st and C Streets
Washington, DC 20551 USA
ABSTRACT:
We explore the age-value and age-quantity productivity profiles
of 53 great Western artists whose work has been auctioned in the
last decade. In terms of the average value of their paintings,
we find that artists have three distinct phases to their
careers: a steep incline, more than doubling their expected
value until an age 31 peak; then follows a slower decline until
age 47, losing almost half their peak value, and finally a very
slow decline. The top quartile of artists distinguish themselves
not only by a higher average value, but also in midcareer by
losing only a fifth of their peak value in 31-47.
We then compare these value results with the annual quantity
age-profiles: Output rises by more than 125% steeply until age
32, and then falls very slowly for the rest of their career.
This decline is significantly steeper for the lowest expected
value quartile of artists. Finally, we show that artists paint
significantly more the higher is their average value.
Our analysis uses both polynomial fits, as well as multiple
structure change analysis to deduce the best fits by piecewise
linear splines.
JEL Classification: J3