modeling art

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue Jan 4 18:31:19 PST 2000


[More bourgeois economics.]

"A Portrait of the Artist as a Young, Middle-Aged, and Elderly

Man"

BY: LONES SMITH

University of Michigan

GEOFFREY R. LANYON

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Division of Monetary Affairs

Document: Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:

http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=182218

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ftp://theorist.econ.lsa.umich.edu/www_papers/portrait.

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Date: September 16, 1999

Contact: LONES SMITH

Email: Mailto:econ-theorist at earthling.net

Postal: University of Michigan

611 S. Tappan

Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

Phone: 734-764-2357

Fax: 734-764-2769

Co-Auth: GEOFFREY R. LANYON

Email: Mailto:geoffrey.r.lanyon at frb.gov

Postal: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Division of Monetary Affairs

21st and C Streets

Washington, DC 20551 USA

ABSTRACT:

We explore the age-value and age-quantity productivity profiles

of 53 great Western artists whose work has been auctioned in the

last decade. In terms of the average value of their paintings,

we find that artists have three distinct phases to their

careers: a steep incline, more than doubling their expected

value until an age 31 peak; then follows a slower decline until

age 47, losing almost half their peak value, and finally a very

slow decline. The top quartile of artists distinguish themselves

not only by a higher average value, but also in midcareer by

losing only a fifth of their peak value in 31-47.

We then compare these value results with the annual quantity

age-profiles: Output rises by more than 125% steeply until age

32, and then falls very slowly for the rest of their career.

This decline is significantly steeper for the lowest expected

value quartile of artists. Finally, we show that artists paint

significantly more the higher is their average value.

Our analysis uses both polynomial fits, as well as multiple

structure change analysis to deduce the best fits by piecewise

linear splines.

JEL Classification: J3



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