thegreatcrash.com press release

Zack Exley zee at ix.netcom.com
Tue Jan 4 18:29:11 PST 2000


Doug, I know there's no "musts", but is it at least true that this market is one of the biggest bubbles in history? The graph I'm using on my site compares today's total market cap to gdp to that of the 29.

I've read that by some other measures this market surpasses anything since tulips. Is this true?

Even if we can't say that a crash is definitely coming, at least we could say, "This is the most overvalued market since tulips by many measures." And that would be fun.

-Zack

-----Original Message----- From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Doug Henwood Sent: Tuesday, January 04, 2000 9:01 PM To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com Subject: Re: thegreatcrash.com press release

Jordan Hayes wrote:


>He defines a crash as a 60% drop from the peak that stays below
>50% of their peak until the end of the year. Can that happen? I
>don't think so; today was a nice fall (those Jan 720 OEX calls were
>down $20, but closed at $50 -- still a nice run from the $13 in
>October), but watch for the bounce tomorrow. My only question
>remains: where will all the cash go? Just because the market took
>profits today doesn't mean that there won't be another few $B
>rushing in tomorrow.
>
>What are they going to do, buy bonds?

So by your logic, bear markets were never possible. Yet we've had many. Is it different now?

Doug



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