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LATEST RELEASE January 22, 2000 Setting the Stage: Election 2000 A Special Analysis by The Gallup Poll Editorial Staff GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
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Political Optimism Surges
The generally positive mood of Americans and their satisfaction with the economy may account for the unusually high level of optimism and approval they express about politics as well. President Clinton's approval rating of 63% is several points higher than it has been in recent months, when it fluctuated in the high 50s. Similarly, approval of Congress is considerably higher now at 51% than it has been over much of the past year, when it fluctuated between the high 30s and the low 40s. The Republican Party has fully recovered from the negative reaction of the public to the impeachment hearings, with 56% of likely voters now favorable toward the GOP, virtually tied with the Democrats' favorability rating at 58%. And by a margin of 49% to 31%, voters say that they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than they usually are.
Political Implications of Positive Mood Not Evident
Since the 1980 presidential campaign, when Ronald Reagan asked Americans whether they were "better off or worse off" after four years of the Carter administration, with the public's negative answer a key explanation for Reagan's election, that question has become a major focus of political analysts. This year, a whopping 73% of Americans say they are better off than they were eight years ago, while just 19% say they are not -- a figure that, combined with all of the other measures of a positive public mood in the country, should in theory give Vice President Al Gore an electoral boost as he campaigns to replace Clinton as president. But despite the positive public mood, Gore trails both Texas Governor George W. Bush and Arizona Senator John McCain in the presidential election race, and fares worse against these two candidates than does former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. Apparently, any economic and other accomplishments that have occurred in the past eight years are not being directly translated into strong support for a Gore presidency.
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Republican Situation Much Different From Democratic Primary Race
The remarkably consistent strength of Bush across all regions of the country and among all types of Republicans can be contrasted with the situation among Democrats. Demographic and geographic characteristics make an enormous difference in the propensity of Democrats to indicate support for Vice President Al Gore or former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. Bradley -- who is behind by 18 percentage points overall in the November/December sample of Democrats -- actually beats Gore in New England and comes close in the Pacific states. Bradley also ties Gore among men with college educations.
Gore and Bradley appeal to sharply different constituencies within the Democratic Party. Gore's voters tend to be traditional Democrats, while Bradley appeals to independents who lean Democratic, men, whites, those with high socioeconomic status, and particularly to those living in the Northeast.
Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, the two major contenders for the Democratic nomination for president, appeal to extraordinarily different types of Democrats, a new special Gallup Poll analysis shows. Gore's voters tend to be traditional Democrats -- older, living in the South, minorities, those with lower levels of education and income, and women. Bradley's constituency is skewed strongly towards certain geographic areas of the country -- particularly the Northeast -- and also towards independents who tend to vote Democratic, whites, men, and those with higher levels of education and income.
This analysis is based on an aggregated sample of 1,631 Democrats who are registered voters and who were asked about their first choice for the Democratic nomination in four different Gallup surveys conducted in the months of November and December 1999. Overall, 55% of this group said they would prefer Gore, while 37% said Bradley.
Bradley Scores Best Among Younger White Men
Some of the largest differences between Gore and Bradley are based on standard demographic categories. Gore has over twice the lead among Democratic women as he does among men. Additionally, Gore has a 34% lead among nonwhites in the sample, including a 39% lead, 65% to 26%, among blacks, while Bradley cuts Gore's lead to only 13% among white Democrats. Gore also overwhelms Bradley, 65% to 32%, among Hispanic Democratic voters.
The pattern of voting by age is similarly straightforward. The older the Democrat, the more likely he or she is to support Gore. The range is striking, from only a 9% Gore lead among 18- to 29-year-old Democrats, to a full 31% lead for Gore among those 65 and older.