Doug, either you or Dow Jones has got some weird kind of Y2K bug. This report, and Dallara's statement are clearly from 1996, but they've been marked with a January 2000 datestamp.
dd
Doug Henwood wrote:
> [such long memories in the capital markets!]
>
> Dow Jones - January 25, 2000
>
> Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
> To Rise 30% as Confidence Rises
>
> By ALAN YONAN JR.
> Dow Jones Newswires
>
> WASHINGTON -- Private investors are expected to boost capital flows
> to emerging markets by about 30% this year as confidence in Asia and
> Latin America strengthens, the Institute of International Finance
> said.
>
> The IIF predicted that net private capital flows to emerging markets
> would rise to about $190 billion after hovering just below $150
> billion a year in 1999 and 1998.
>
> "Private capital flows to emerging markets are coming back after
> having gone through such a difficult period," said Charles Dallara,
> managing director of the IIF, a global association of private
> financial institutions with more than 315 members.
>
> Still, private capital flows remain substantially lower than the
> $327.9 billion reached in 1996 before a financial crisis hit Asia in
> mid-1997 and spread to Russia and Latin America the following year.
>
> Mr. Dallara said he was encouraged by the composition of the capital
> flows, noting a significant improvement in the environment for
> lending and other debt financing.
>
> Commercial banks, which pulled out $49 billion in 1998 and $39.1
> billion in 1999, should slow their withdrawals to slightly more than
> $3 billion in 2000, the IIF said. Asset managers are expected to
> boost purchases of emerging-market debt to $42.7 billion this year,
> from $32 billion in 1999.
>
> Equity investments are expected to drop off slightly in 2000 to $154
> billion, but will remain well above crisis levels, the IIF forecast.
>
> Portfolio investment is expected to rise to $33.7 billion, from $17.0
> billion in 1999 and $13.7 billion in 1998. Foreign direct investment
> in plants and equipment, which proved much more durable during the
> crisis, is expected to fall to $119.8 billion from a record $138.8
> billion in 1999.
>
> While the overall picture for emerging markets is "improving," Mr.
> Dallara said, "there are uncertainties and there remain anxieties and
> there are risks."
>
> For example, the U.S. could pose some problems if there were some
> combination of a dollar depreciation, continued growth of the
> current-account trade deficit, a rise in interest rates and a
> significant stock-market correction, he said.
>
> In addition, emerging-market economies are vulnerable to political
> forces that could derail economic reform efforts, he said.
>
> "Most emerging-market economies are reasonably well-positioned to
> continue to advance the process of sound policies and structural
> reforms. But this needs to be monitored carefully," he said.
>
> The IIF forecast calls for net private capital flows to Latin America
> to increase to $89.6 billion in 2000, from $68.8 billion in 1999.
> Flows to emerging markets in Asia are forecast to rise to $59.4
> billion from $39.3 billion. Emerging markets in Europe should expect
> flows to increase to $32.5 billion from $31.9 billion. Flows to
> Africa and the Middle East will rise to $11.6 billion from $8.7
> billion, the IIF predicted.
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