Even if the leading LDP and his allies have lost quite a few seats in last week's elections, they still have a confortable majority that will allow them to ignore the transformation of the electorate. To make things clear, in rural areas, a lot of 'non affiliated' candidates are in fact ex-ldp and thus are not likely to ally the Minshuto (Democratic Party, lead by Naoto Kan, the biggest winner of the elections, opposition) except when it fits their interests, a lot of the non-affiliated are opportunists, only a few are trully resisting affiliation and struggling to get voters think about global issues, they are mostly elected in local bodies, where campaigning is not as costly as on the national level (here they have to compete with 2nd or 3rd generation candidates or media owners etc etc...)
JC Helary
Election `revolt' shows fissure between rural, urban voters
The current pattern of budget allocation is heavily tipped in favor of projects to build roads and bridges, upgrade agricultural infrastructure and improve farmland, and this needs correcting.
July 3, 2000
In many constituencies, a ``revolt'' of urban voters resulted in the defeat of a number of Liberal Democratic Party heavyweights, including Cabinet ministers. For LDP executives, this must have felt like being revisited by the nightmare of the Upper House election two years ago.
The outcome of the June 25 Lower House election suggested that many voters had grown sick and tired of the reckless abandon with which money was being squandered on public works projects in the rural areas, leaving a stack of bills for the next generation to worry about.
In the name of economic recovery, the ruling coalition parties called for more public works projects, daring anyone to challenge their argument. There is no doubt this sort of arrogance rubbed urban voters the wrong way.
In the countryside, on the other hand, the LDP proved invincible. In 14 prefectures, mainly in the Hokuriku, Chugoku and Shikoku regions, the party triumphed in practically all single-seat constituencies. How are we to understand this gap?
The weight of one ballot varies from electorate to electorate. This reality worked in the LDP's favor in non-urban constituencies, where politicians usually have close relations with their constituents. And in terms of competence as well as personal appeal, most opposition candidates who ran in such districts failed to match up to their LDP rivals who were ``inheriting'' their fathers' or relatives' seats.
In addition to these factors, it is also likely that rural voters were put on their guard by the proposal of Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) and other opposition parties to curb public works projects-a proposal that was meant to appeal to city people.
Assuming this was the case, it means there was a conflict between the interests of urban voters and rural voters. Any policy argument that serves to aggravate such a conflict is futile. This is a disturbing matter when one thinks about the future of politics. It is certainly not desirable for urban and rural voters to fight each other over funding.
However, it would be wrong to think that a public works project will be unconditionally welcomed by every local government and community concerned. A case in point is the Tokushima No. 1 district, where voters handed the victory to a Minshuto candidate who opposed the Yoshino River dam project. This is no longer an age in which people will welcome anything so long as their tax money is left untouched.
As a matter of fact, few local governments today are willing or able to go solo on public works projects, even with central government subsidies. This is because most local governments are in such dire financial straits that they simply do not have enough budget to allocate to public works projects.
Among voters who cast their ballots for the LDP, there must have been those who did not really believe in any more projects, but felt they had no choice but to keep relying on them because there were no other means of making a living.
If we are correct in this assumption, the corollary is that what we are looking at is not just a conflict between the interests of city voters and rural voters. Rather, we should see it in the broader policy context of how to restructure the nation's fiscal expenditure system and what types of jobs ought to be created in the countryside for best results.
The current pattern of budget allocation is heavily tipped in favor of projects to build roads and bridges, upgrade agricultural infrastructure and improve farmland, and this needs correcting.
It is to be hoped that the implementation of the nursing care insurance system will create welfare-related jobs in the rural areas and stimulate the regional economies. Given proper encouragement for growth, such a trend could help people end their reliance on public works projects.
Regional fiscal autonomy is also a must, but the traditional brand of decentralization plans does not help. Once local governments are able to stop relying on central government subsidies and have more of their own tax money to spend at their discretion, there will surely be fewer public works projects that are not really necessary.
The gaps that keep society fragmented exist between salaried workers and self-employed people over taxation; between young people and the elderly over the pension system; and between middle-aged and older workers, who have lost their jobs because of the information technology revolution, and new Internet venture millionaires.
If these gaps are left alone, the bottom could fall out of politics.